 ▲ XRP (XRP) / AI-generated image © |
An analysis suggests that XRP (XRP, Ripple) is approaching a critical inflection point as it remains trapped in a compressed symmetrical triangle pattern near the $1.40 level, struggling to establish clear direction. In particular, a breakout above $1.57 is being identified as the key price level that could determine a shift toward an upward trend in the short term.
According to investment-focused media outlet TradingNews on March 6 (local time), XRP is currently trading at around $1.36, marking its third failure this week to break through the $1.43–$1.45 resistance zone. In that range, selling pressure accompanied by trading volume approximately 74% above average confirmed strong supply. The current price stands about 62% below its July 2025 high of $3.66.
The main cause of the price stagnation is increased supply. Since November 2025, a total of $1.25 billion has flowed into XRP spot ETFs, locking approximately 810 million XRP into institutional custody, yet price gains have remained limited. This is largely due to roughly 3.8 billion XRP flowing into Binance since early 2026, creating significant sell-side liquidity around the $1.50 level. In one single session, about 472 million XRP—worth approximately $660 million—were transferred to exchanges.
However, the structural supply-demand environment is gradually improving. XRP holdings on centralized exchanges have declined by about 57% over the past year, falling from approximately 4 billion tokens to around 1.6–1.7 billion. Analysts note that ETF holdings alone now account for nearly half of the remaining exchange supply, suggesting that long-term supply compression is beginning to take shape.
From a technical perspective, a bearish structure still dominates. The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) stands at around $1.56, the 100-day EMA at $1.77, and the 200-day EMA near $2.00, all maintaining downward slopes. While the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above the signal line, the shrinking histogram indicates weakening bullish momentum. Immediate support lies at $1.40, with $1.33 and $1.27 cited as the next support levels if that threshold breaks.
Conversely, the bullish scenario is relatively clear. A confirmed daily close above $1.57 accompanied by strong volume could open the path toward the $1.76–$1.80 range and a potential recovery to $2.00. Analysts project that if ETF assets under management expand to around $5 billion, supply pressure could be fully absorbed, potentially shifting the market structure into a supply shortage phase.
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