 ▲ Ripple/Source: X © |
XRP (Ripple) has plunged 54% from its peak, exposing the limitations of speculative assets. A sobering analysis suggests that beyond simple partnership announcements, true value can only be proven through large-scale on-chain adoption in the real payments market.
According to Forbes on Feb. 21 (local time), unlike Bitcoin (BTC), which serves as a store of value, or Ethereum (ETH), which powers a smart contract ecosystem, XRP is a single-purpose payment utility designed to bridge two fiat currencies in cross-border transfers and complete settlements within seconds. However, the token’s real-world usage remains largely theoretical, causing its price to be driven heavily by market sentiment and news, resulting in significant volatility.
The outlet pointed out that despite Ripple’s notable achievements—including expanding global partnerships, securing legal victories, and launching its own stablecoin (RLUSD)—the XRP token itself remains sidelined. Banks can process transactions through RippleNet or RLUSD without using XRP. In particular, the report warned that if RLUSD absorbs XRP’s on-chain transaction volume, it could pose the most serious threat to XRP’s adoption rate.
Three key catalysts were identified as essential for XRP to generate structural demand. First is the activation of a highly utilized payment network based directly on XRP rather than RippleNet. Second is achieving regulatory clarity in major countries and regions outside the United States. Third is national-level system adoption through integration with central bank digital currency (CBDC) infrastructure. Additionally, attracting billions of dollars in inflows through a spot XRP ETF to establish a solid demand base is considered a crucial factor.
Future price prospects vary sharply depending on the success of these adoption stages. Without meaningful growth in on-chain data and continued reliance on RLUSD, XRP’s price could remain trapped between $1 and $1.80. However, if one or two payment networks become operational alongside regulatory easing, it could rise to between $2.50 and $4. In a best-case bullish scenario—featuring multiple payment networks, CBDC integration, and significant spot ETF inflows occurring simultaneously—XRP could reach between $5 and as high as $10.
Ultimately, the next 12 to 18 months will mark a critical turning point in determining whether XRP’s established infrastructure blossoms into real-world utility or loses ground to its own stablecoin and alternatives. The report emphasized that rather than macroeconomic trends or one-off news events, only actual on-chain transaction volume and the adoption of XRP by major payment networks will serve as the true indicators of fundamentals and price momentum.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and the publisher is not responsible for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*