 ▲ XRP / AI-generated image © |
XRP (Ripple), after plunging 62%, is now under pressure to break below $1.30, standing at a crossroads where the $1.27–$1.28 accumulated purchase zone could either turn into a “short trap” or mark the beginning of a further steep decline.
According to Trading News on February 23 (local time), XRP is currently trading within a $1.33–$1.40 range. It fell about 7% in a single day, down roughly 30% over the past month and approximately 48% over the past year. Compared to its July 2025 peak of $3.65, the token has dropped about 62%. Following the recent sharp decline, the price has entered a zone testing support in the low $1.30 range.
On-chain indicators show clear signs of capitulation. Weekly realized losses recently surged to about $908 million, marking the highest level in 39 months and the largest since the roughly $1.93 billion loss recorded in late 2022. Spot trading volume over 24 hours jumped 72% from the previous day to approximately $2.35 billion, while derivatives trading volume increased 39% to around $4.02 billion. Open interest rose to about $2.41 billion, extending its upward trend. Expanding volume and rising open interest amid falling prices are typically interpreted as a classic “capitulation structure.”
Technically, an eight-hour chart shows a completed head-and-shoulders pattern, with a theoretical downside target of $1.12—about 20% below the neckline. On the daily chart, resistance is concentrated between $1.50 and $1.55, while demand is seen in the $1.10–$1.20 range. Even if a short-term rebound occurs, breaking through resistance at $1.39–$1.42 and $1.45–$1.465 will be crucial for any trend reversal.
Momentum indicators are approaching oversold territory. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering in the mid-30s, around 36, while the medium-term baseline on volatility indicators sits near $1.42. However, the funding rate has sharply turned negative from +0.0036 to –0.019, indicating a growing concentration of short positions. Rising open interest and sharply negative funding rates during a price decline suggest the market is leaning excessively toward shorts. In such a scenario, a breakout above $1.39–$1.46 could trigger a short squeeze, driven by buying pressure to cover short positions.
The key defensive line lies in the $1.27–$1.28 range. Approximately 444 million XRP have been accumulated in this price zone, forming a dense cluster of purchase levels. If this support holds, short positions could be trapped; however, a clear close below it could increase the likelihood of the $1.12 target materializing. Recent net outflows from centralized exchanges rose about 23% over five days to roughly 78.4 million XRP, suggesting a pattern distinct from short-term panic selling. Regulatory issues, discussions surrounding stablecoins such as RLUSD, and broader macroeconomic factors also remain potential catalysts for near-term volatility.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*