 ▲ U.S. Dollar (USD), Bitcoin (BTC) / AI-generated image © |
Analysis suggests that for Bitcoin (BTC) to resume its upward momentum, the U.S. Federal Reserve must ultimately begin easing monetary policy.
According to crypto-focused media outlet Watcher.Guru on March 11 (local time), prominent crypto analyst Arthur Hayes recently stated on the podcast “Coin Stories” that he would not invest in Bitcoin until the Federal Reserve resumes expanding the money supply. He noted that if the ongoing military conflict between the United States and Iran in the Middle East becomes prolonged, the U.S. government may eventually be forced to increase monetary supply to cover war-related expenses.
Hayes believes Bitcoin has not yet confirmed a definitive bottom and warned that an extended war scenario could trigger broader sell-offs across risk assets. “The longer a U.S.–Iran war drags on, the more likely we are to see significant selling in stocks and Bitcoin,” he said, adding that Bitcoin could potentially fall below $60,000.
Bitcoin has been undergoing a strong correction since reaching its all-time high of approximately $125,080 in October 2025. The current price stands about 45% below that peak. Recently, Bitcoin attempted to break above the $72,000 level but failed to sustain momentum. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin declined about 0.6% over the past 24 hours and is down roughly 2% on a monthly basis. However, on a weekly basis and over the past 14 days, it has posted gains of approximately 2.6% and 6.3%, respectively, showing signs of partial recovery.
Hayes added that Bitcoin could resume its upward trajectory if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and expands liquidity. However, he pointed out that investor risk appetite remains subdued and bearish sentiment continues to dominate the market.
Meanwhile, analytics platform CoinCodex forecast that Bitcoin could rise to around $80,681 in the short term. However, the platform also projected that Bitcoin may struggle to remain above the $80,000 level for long and could face another correction to around $72,000 by early May.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any financial losses resulting from investment decisions based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*