 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC) |
Bitcoin’s potential to reach $850,000 within the next decade is once again drawing attention. Despite the recent correction phase, the core thesis focuses not on short-term price movements but on the long-term potential for market capitalization expansion.
According to investment-focused media outlet The Motley Fool on February 7 (local time), contributor Neil Patel projected that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach approximately $850,000 by early 2036. Citing the fact that Bitcoin has gained about 19,300% over the past decade despite recent sharp declines, he assessed that the long-term growth narrative remains intact.
Patel noted that while Bitcoin has undergone a significant correction from its peak, it is inherently difficult to determine the precise causes of short-term volatility. He emphasized that during such periods, investors should focus on structural changes and long-term supply and demand rather than price fluctuations, stressing that short-term declines do not necessarily imply a deterioration in long-term value.
The realism of the price target comes from numerical analysis. If Bitcoin’s current price is around $70,200, reaching $850,000 would require a rise of roughly 1,080%. This is far lower than the explosive gains seen in past cycles and assumes that as Bitcoin becomes integrated into the global asset class, its growth rate gradually moderates.
Patel found Bitcoin’s long-term upside by comparing it to gold. The total value of all gold above ground is estimated at around $34 trillion, and he argued that Bitcoin’s market capitalization could plausibly expand to about half of that, or roughly $17 trillion. With Bitcoin’s current market cap at approximately $1.26 trillion, it would need to grow more than 13-fold to reach that target range.
He highlighted Bitcoin’s core competitive advantages, including portability, transactability, divisibility, censorship resistance, verifiability, and a fixed supply cap of 21 million coins. In particular, he assessed that this scarcity structure could allow Bitcoin to function as a long-term store of value similar to gold.
However, the key variable is a shift in perception among large capital holders such as central banks. Patel argued that a true re-rating of Bitcoin’s market capitalization would only be possible if it is accepted as a reserve asset like gold. He analyzed that as integration with the traditional financial system progresses, regulatory environments stabilize, and political acceptance accumulates, such a shift could gradually become a reality.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and no responsibility is taken for investment losses based on it. The content should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.*