 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC) |
The cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP (Ripple), appears resilient amid geopolitical tensions, functioning as a safe haven. However, beneath the on-chain data lies a peculiar two-sided market where long-term investors have virtually stopped moving.
According to crypto outlet AMB Crypto on March 2 (local time), AlphaFractal data analysis shows that while new retail investors and institutional funds are actively trading, coins held for more than three years have largely stopped moving. The Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric, which reflects selling activity by long-term holders, has fallen to historic lows even on a 90-day average basis, suggesting that these investors remain unfazed by recent market volatility or have halted selling altogether.
Santiment’s Age Consumed and 90-day Dormant Circulation indicators reveal that when prices surged toward a local peak last November, long-term holders had already engaged in sharp, large-scale profit-taking. Glassnode data also shows that the 90-day CDD metric has been bottoming out since December 2025. Notably, even when prices weakened and fell near $70,000 in February this year, the indicator did not rise, indicating that large-scale exits had already concluded.
Although long-term holders are not forming a strong buying support wall, retail investor sentiment remains relatively solid. Former JPMorgan executive Aditya Singhania pointed out that while everyone fears a crash tomorrow and is gripped by panic, there is virtually no fear in the Bitcoin market. In contrast, perennial Bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff continues to maintain his bearish outlook.
Historically, Bitcoin’s true market bottom has formed near the average cost basis of long-term holders, currently around $38,900. With current prices about 66% higher than that level, the market has not experienced a deep correction like in previous bear cycles. The current selling pressure is coming primarily from short-term investors rather than panic-stricken long-term holders. Meanwhile, according to on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain, an early whale who accumulated 5,000 BTC at around $332 years ago recently sold 500 BTC worth approximately $47.77 million, converting paper gains into realized profits.
In sum, the 2026 Bitcoin market is moving like two markets coexisting: long-term holders unmoved by volatility and early whales gradually locking in profits. Unless macroeconomic conditions deteriorate sharply, the most likely scenario is an extended period of sideways movement as the market absorbs past selling pressure, rather than a dramatic crash or surge.
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