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XRP (Ripple) is creating a sense of calm before the storm as explosive institutional interest aligns with the major tailwind of regulatory clarity. While short-term technical downside risks remain, analysts suggest that depending on the outcome of legislation in April, the current consolidation phase could represent the final buying opportunity before a massive rally.
According to investment media outlet FXLeaders on February 21 (local time), Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse expressed 90% confidence that the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act (H.R. 3633), will pass by April. This figure far exceeds the broader market’s general estimate of 78% to 83%. If passed, cryptocurrency regulation would shift from courtroom battles to a formal legislative framework, potentially accelerating adoption of XRP by major banks and approval of various financial products beyond spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
At the same time, the XRP Ledger (XRPL) is rapidly emerging as a global hub for real-world assets (RWA). The total value of tokenized real-world assets on XRPL has surged 266% month-over-month to reach $1.44 billion. In particular, it has secured a 63% market share in the tokenized U.S. Treasury market, surpassing Ethereum (ETH) and Polygon to solidify its dominant position as an institutional asset platform.
Meanwhile, Standard Chartered has significantly lowered its year-end 2026 price target for XRP from $8 to $2.80. Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Assets Research, cited February’s market sell-off and shifts in macroeconomic risks as reasons for the 65% reduction. However, even the revised target remains roughly double the current price of around $1.41. The bank maintains a positive outlook on XRP, projecting that $4 billion to $8 billion in inflows from spot ETFs could reduce supply.
From a technical analysis perspective, XRP is currently trapped in a bearish descending triangle pattern on the four-hour chart. The 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $1.43 and the descending trendline from the $2 peak are acting as strong resistance levels. If the key support at $1.34 breaks, there is a risk of a swift decline toward $1.20.
Historically, XRP has recorded an average decline of 8% in February. However, recent exchange outflows and the highest level of whale accumulation in 15 months are being cited as potential variables that could alter this trend. Experts recommend a cautious approach until the $1.52 resistance level is decisively reclaimed, but note that even if short-term price weakness occurs, it could present an optimal entry point ahead of a potential major rally once regulatory clarity is achieved in April.
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