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The cryptocurrency market has entered a brief pause after posting a modest rebound over the weekend despite extreme fear sentiment. However, President Donald Trump’s unpredictable tariff policies and geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to weigh heavily on the market, with significant volatility expected depending on the outcomes of major macro events scheduled for this week.
Bitcoin regains the $68,000 level… but still ‘bleeding red’ on a weekly basis
As of 7:05 a.m. KST on the 22nd, according to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $68,388, up 0.92% over the past 24 hours. Ethereum (ETH) rose 0.55% to $1,980, while XRP gained 1.47% to $1.44. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization also increased 0.58% from the previous day to $2.34 trillion, showing a generally modest daily uptick.
However, the broader weekly picture remains grim. Bitcoin has fallen 2.14% over the past seven days, while Ethereum is down 5.04%. In particular, meme coin leader Dogecoin (DOGE) plunged 10.33%, fully reflecting the intense selling pressure that swept the market this week. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 14, remaining in the “Extreme Fear” zone, suggesting that the recent daily rebound is more likely a technical bounce from oversold conditions rather than a trend reversal.
‘Tariff uncertainty’ drives weekly decline… Trump reverses course in a single day
The primary factor that rattled the cryptocurrency market this week was the Trump administration’s “unpredictable trade policy.” After the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against reciprocal tariff measures, markets initially showed signs of relief. However, uncertainty surged when President Trump announced he would sign an executive order imposing a 10% global tariff, only to abruptly revise it to 15% just a day later.
Concerns are growing that a temporary 15% tariff could lead to patchwork trade policies throughout his term, along with the possibility of prolonged legal disputes between the government and corporations over tariff refunds. These uncertainties have significantly dampened investor sentiment across risk assets.
Two major events to determine this week’s direction… State of the Union and Nvidia
The direction of the cryptocurrency market this week hinges on two major macroeconomic events.
The first is President Trump’s address to a joint session of Congress scheduled for the 24th. Wall Street is closely watching whether he might deliver an ultimatum regarding Iran nuclear negotiations or hint at potential military action. With markets already fragile, any geopolitical escalation in the Middle East could trigger a sharp sell-off in cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin.
The second event is Nvidia’s fourth-quarter earnings report, widely regarded as a barometer for global AI and tech investor sentiment. If Nvidia, whose shares have recently been trading sideways in the $180 range, revives the AI narrative with strong guidance, the cryptocurrency market—which shows a high correlation with the Nasdaq—could gain powerful momentum for a reversal.
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