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Bitcoin surpassed $74,000, reaching its highest level in a month, but warnings are simultaneously emerging in the market that the move could merely be a rebound within a broader bear market.
According to investment media outlet FXEmpire on March 5 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) broke through a key resistance range formed over the past four weeks and climbed to $74,000. The sharp rally is believed to have been triggered by a short squeeze, driven by buying pressure as short positions were liquidated or covered.
The broader cryptocurrency market also rebounded. The total crypto market capitalization rose 4.8% to $2.45 trillion and briefly reached $2.5 trillion intraday, marking a four-week high. Market observers note that the market cap is currently approaching its 50-day moving average, and a sustained move above this level could signal a shift to an upward trend.
However, some caution that the rally could remain a technical rebound. Based on Fibonacci retracement levels, the rebound target for the decline since January stands at around $2.53 trillion, while the technical rebound zone based on the overall downtrend since the October peak is estimated at approximately $2.92 trillion. Analysts suggest the current upswing could still represent a technical bounce within a bear market.
During the recent rebound, Bitcoin showed signs of slowing momentum near the 61.8% retracement level of the January-to-February decline and around the 50-day moving average. Market sentiment indicates that further gains and confirmation of trend strength are needed before declaring the resumption of a bull market.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin gained additional momentum as $1.4 billion flowed into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past five trading days. Market analysis firm K33 Research assessed that Bitcoin has entered its third-deepest oversold zone in history following a five-month decline. In similar past bear market conditions, the average 90-day return was 62%, with a 78% probability of gains. The report also noted that publicly listed mining companies have been selling substantial amounts of their crypto holdings, with some funds reportedly being redirected into building artificial intelligence infrastructure.
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