 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC) decline, crypto fear / ChatGPT-generated image |
As Bitcoin (BTC) plunges amid geopolitical tensions originating from the Middle East, the decisive key to determining the market’s direction lies not in a simple price rebound but in time corrections on higher time frames and shifts in psychological indicators.
Veteran trader Jason Pizzino appeared on the cryptocurrency-focused YouTube channel Altcoin Daily on March 1 (local time), analyzing that Bitcoin’s recent sharp decline represents a significant turning point intertwined with long-term economic cycles rather than a mere reaction to isolated events. Pizzino, who has 18 years of trading experience, emphasized that signs of weakening market momentum had already been detected at the top and urged investors to focus on objective technical indicators rather than respond emotionally.
Pizzino identified the Gann Swing Indicator, the Fear and Greed Index, and USDT dominance as the three core indicators for assessing the market. He particularly referenced the 18-year cycle based on U.S. housing prices, warning that the current market is approaching an economic peak pattern repeated over the past 200 years. “Although the market was shaken by news of U.S. President Donald Trump’s strike on Iran, a double-top pattern had already formed at the highs, signaling the beginning of a distribution phase,” Pizzino diagnosed, adding that “the Trump administration’s actions have amplified market volatility.”
During the upcoming U.S. summer period, the digital asset market is expected to see a sharp decline in trading volume and continue a sluggish sideways trend. Pizzino analyzed that even if prices do not collapse dramatically, a time correction process will be necessary to remove excess froth from the market. “If the market fails to break through the USDT dominance support level around 6.5%, a prolonged period of stagnation could persist for several months,” he projected. While legislative developments such as the U.S. crypto market structure bill (CLARITY) are pending, it may take considerable time before actual capital inflows materialize.
In a worst-case scenario, if Bitcoin fails to hold the $30,000 support level, further declines toward the $15,000–$30,000 range are possible, reflecting a cautious outlook. On the other hand, Pizzino left open the possibility of Bitcoin reaching between $160,000 and $180,000 around 2028, though he noted this would depend on how the market navigates the contraction phase of the 18-year economic cycle. The altcoin market, including XRP, remains subordinate to Bitcoin’s price action, making it premature to expect an independent rally.
The true bottom of the digital asset market forms not when prices fall further, but when investors become completely indifferent to the market. Pizzino advised that only by halting emotionally driven trading and strictly adhering to a well-prepared trading plan can investors seize the massive opportunities ahead. The market is currently in a phase of consolidating energy within a downtrend, and macroeconomic developments after the second quarter are expected to become a watershed determining the survival of the broader asset market.
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