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Tension is building in the cryptocurrency market following a warning from a veteran analyst that Bitcoin (BTC) is showing extreme instability on the weekly chart and stands at a crossroads for a potential further plunge.
According to cryptocurrency outlet U.Today on March 2 (local time), renowned trader Bob Loukas, who has more than 30 years of experience in financial markets and is the creator of the Bitcoin 60-day cycle theory, described Bitcoin’s current weekly chart as “terrible” and set a price target of $49,000. Loukas noted that although Bitcoin has already entered deeply oversold territory, it remains technically in a precarious მდგომარეობ, “hanging by a thread,” and warned that another major downward wave could follow soon.
Loukas also expressed skepticism about widely cited business cycle indicators and the bullish narrative surrounding the halving event. He dismissed business cycle indicators as little more than “self-consolation” within the crypto market, adding that there are no signs on the current chart of pre-halving accumulation. According to his analysis, the current downturn has nothing to do with the halving; rather, it reflects a hidden bearish cycle revealing itself as capital that flowed in on expectations of spot Bitcoin ETFs and pro-crypto policies exits the market.
Bitcoin is currently trading about 25% above Loukas’s $49,000 target. If his projection materializes, Bitcoin would lose more than 60% of its value from the peak recorded in October 2025. Loukas added that while the crypto market appeared to be filled with positive catalysts on the surface, it has essentially remained in a prolonged bearish cycle.
Interestingly, while Loukas maintains an extremely bearish outlook on Bitcoin, he continues to hold a bullish position on the stock market. He is paying close attention to the strong contraction of Bollinger Bands in equities and maintains a buying stance on key stock names. This suggests that the correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional financial assets may be weakening, potentially leading to differentiated market trends across asset classes.
The Bitcoin market now faces a critical test to avoid the “death plunge” forecast by the veteran analyst. Whether the price falls toward the $49,000 level as Loukas warned or manages a rebound from oversold territory will depend on price action in the coming days. Investors are closely monitoring the fragile signals on the weekly chart highlighted by Loukas while establishing cautious strategies to protect their assets.
Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference purposes only and we are not responsible for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.