 ▲ Prediction markets / AI-generated image |
Prediction markets signaling a tectonic shift in global intelligence systems are rapidly emerging as next-generation intelligence tools that go beyond simple betting to overcome the limits of centralized information agencies.
In an opinion column published on February 10 (local time), Joshua Chu, co-chair of the Hong Kong Web3 Association, assessed that prediction markets are becoming a new form of open-source intelligence asset by converting U.S. classified information into on-chain signals. He analyzed that today’s most sensitive information is no longer hidden in secret locations but is being traded on prediction markets such as Polymarket, effectively serving as a gold mine that delivers real-time intelligence to foreign agencies.
The power of prediction markets has been demonstrated through real-world cases. Notably, in October 2025, just ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement, a whale investor unwound large short positions in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), earning close to $100 million. In another case, in early 2026, tens of thousands of dollars poured into Polymarket just hours before an operation to arrest Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, illustrating how military secrets can leak as on-chain data. Chu explained that such transparent transaction records provide foreign intelligence agencies with far more sophisticated early-warning signals than traditional espionage.
An even more serious issue lies in regulatory gaps and internal conflicts of interest in the United States. In April 2025, the U.S. Department of Justice disbanded its cryptocurrency enforcement team, scaling back related oversight. Subsequent disclosures revealed that Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche, who had led efforts to ease crypto regulation, personally held substantial amounts of Bitcoin and Ethereum, sparking intense controversy over conflicts of interest. Six senators argued that Blanche may have reshaped policy to benefit his own positions, framing the issue as a national security threat rather than merely an ethical lapse.
While traditional intelligence operations can take years to recruit human sources, prediction markets use economic incentives to gather information in real time and permanently record it on blockchains. High-liquidity derivatives exchanges such as Hyperliquid project the conviction of specific actors through price movements, while AI analytics tools track these abnormal trading patterns to forecast classified operations in Washington. Chu predicted that the most capable intelligence agent in 2026 will not be a field spy, but an algorithm trained on Polymarket odds and order flows.
As long as crypto markets remain in regulatory blind spots, prediction markets have transformed into low-risk, high-reward hunting grounds where foreign intelligence agencies can detect and exploit U.S. security failures. Each time insiders tempted by classified operations attempt to generate profits on-chain, blockchain explorers broadcast those signals to the world. In a new era where the value of information is instantly converted into capital flows, prediction markets are poised to become the most ruthless and accurate core pillar of modern intelligence gathering.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference purposes only, and the publisher assumes no responsibility for any investment losses based on its content. The information should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.*