 ▲ Brad Garlinghouse, Ripple, XRP, cryptocurrency regulation, virtual assets/ChatGPT-generated image © |
As observations grow that regulatory uncertainty surrounding XRP (Ripple) in the United States is nearing its final stage, expectations for renewed institutional capital inflows are resurfacing. Ripple executives anticipate that a “decisive watershed moment” could arrive as early as late April.
According to investment media outlet FXLeaders on Feb. 20 (local time), Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse projected a 90% likelihood that the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill, known as the CLARITY Act, will pass by the end of April. The market is also said to be pricing in roughly a 78% probability of passage. If approved, the legislation could mark a turning point, effectively ending a decade-long era of “enforcement-driven regulation.”
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are jointly refining asset classification standards through “Project Crypto.” The initiative seeks to clearly distinguish digital assets as either “digital commodities” or “investment contracts,” streamline exchange registration procedures, and prevent market manipulation and fraud through enhanced data sharing. Collaboration between SEC Chair Paul Atkins and CFTC Chair Michael Sellick is being interpreted as a signal of shifting regulatory dynamics.
However, debate continues in the Senate over whether to permit interest-bearing rewards on stablecoins. The banking sector is calling for a ban due to concerns over deposit outflows, while the crypto industry argues that such incentives are a core function of digital finance. Observers suggest a compromise may emerge that restricts rewards for retail investors while allowing them for institutions.
Ripple is accelerating infrastructure expansion in preparation for the bill’s potential passage. Through its acquisition of Hidden Road, the company has strengthened institutional spot trading capabilities, and via GTreasury, it has integrated its RLUSD stablecoin into corporate treasury management systems. It has also established institutional-grade custody and security frameworks through partnerships with Palisade Wallet and Securosys. Expectations are growing that a legal confirmation of XRP’s non-security status could open the floodgates for institutional capital.
Price outlooks remain mixed. CryptoRank’s AI model forecasts that XRP could rise to $4.40 by the end of the first quarter if the bill passes and ETF inflows continue. Conversely, scenarios suggest a decline to $2.50 if legislation is delayed, and as low as $1.35 in the event of regulatory gridlock combined with deteriorating macroeconomic conditions. The countdown to April 30 is emerging as a key variable in determining XRP’s medium-term trajectory.
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