 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC) |
Amid sharply escalating military tensions in the Middle East following U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, short-term Bitcoin (BTC) holders are responding calmly unlike in past crises, helping to establish downside resilience in the market.
According to a March 2 report by crypto-focused outlet The Crypto Basic, Bitcoin has fallen 3.6% since February 26, sliding to around $65,548. In particular, on February 28, when the conflict intensified, the price briefly plunged to $63,037 before quickly recovering and stabilizing above the $65,000 level. Crypto analyst Moreno, citing on-chain data, noted that loss-driven exchange inflows from short-term Bitcoin holders remain significantly lower compared to previous downturns.
Short-term holders, who typically react sensitively to market fear, previously sent 89,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss within just 24 hours during the February 5–6 sell-off. However, despite the latest geopolitical risks stemming from the Middle East, such panic selling has not been observed. Even when Bitcoin entered the $63,000 to $64,000 range on February 28, exchange inflows from these holders remained near cycle lows, suggesting that selling pressure has largely been exhausted.
Historical data also supports the potential for a strong rebound after the initial shock of war. Market analyst Ted Pillows pointed out that during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Bitcoin rebounded 40% after an initial plunge, and during Israel’s attack on Iran in June 2025, it rose 25%. Mak, an analyst at investment advisory firm Mak Investment, said Bitcoin has undergone a roughly 47–48% correction from its October 2025 peak of $126,000 and is demonstrating stronger recovery resilience than the stock market.
Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory hinges on whether it can break through key technical resistance and support levels. Analyst Mak identified $70,800 as a strong resistance level and $57,772 as a critical support level. If the geopolitical crisis remains contained and Bitcoin surpasses $70,800, the price could quickly surge into the $80,000 to $91,000 range. Conversely, if the conflict escalates and the $62,000 level breaks down, there is a risk of further declines toward the lower demand zone at $57,772.
The Middle East conflict is currently escalating toward full-scale war, with reports of the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and subsequent retaliatory airstrikes by Iran. Nevertheless, the crypto market has maintained price stability on the back of steadfast short-term holders, sustaining a calm before the storm. Investors are closely monitoring further developments in the region, believing that the market’s underlying bullish trend remains intact as long as exchange inflows from short-term holders do not surge.
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