 ▲ ‘Digital gold’ Bitcoin (BTC) |
Bitcoin is holding above $69,000, raising expectations of reclaiming the $70,000 level, while an analysis suggests that the combination of two macro factors—fund outflows from gold ETFs and a sharp rise in international oil prices—is creating a scenario targeting $79,200 by the end of March.
According to investment media outlet FX Leaders on March 10 (local time), Bitcoin (BTC) surged 4.1% intraday and is trading above $69,000. The rally has been attributed to two simultaneous macro trends: a spike in global oil prices and capital outflows from gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Gold experienced a strong upward cycle last year, attracting substantial inflows into gold ETFs, but the recent trend has shifted. After gold prices fell 4.4%, approximately $3 billion exited GLD, the largest U.S. gold ETF, in a single day—marking the largest daily outflow in more than two years. During the same period, gold ETF holdings dropped sharply from about 1.4 million ounces on February 6 to around 621,100 ounces on March 6.
In contrast, spot Bitcoin ETF flows have shown improvement. Net ETF flows shifted from a $1.9 billion outflow on February 6 to a $273 million net inflow as of March 6, with actual holdings reflecting an accumulation of approximately 46,000 BTC. Chris Kuiper, an analyst at Fidelity Digital Assets, noted that gold and Bitcoin have historically alternated in forming bullish cycles and suggested that Bitcoin could outperform gold in the coming years.
Sharp volatility in the energy market is also fueling bullish expectations. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has surged 55% over the past 10 days, reaching $101 per barrel. FX Leaders explained that in four past instances when WTI rose more than 15% over a 10-day period, Bitcoin recorded an average gain of about 20% over the following four weeks.
Applying this pattern to the current price structure, based on Bitcoin’s price of $66,000 on February 28—when the oil rally accelerated—a 20% upside target would place Bitcoin at approximately $79,200. However, Bitcoin currently shows an 81% correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index, meaning it could be significantly influenced by tech stock trends and geopolitical risks.
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