 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) ©CoinReaders |
Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, is struggling to move beyond the $68,000 range as large-scale capital outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue for a fifth consecutive week. Meanwhile, subtle capital shifts are being detected in the market, with funds flowing into spot ETFs for XRP (Ripple) and Solana (SOL) as alternative safe havens for investors.
According to TradingNews on Feb. 22 (local time), Bitcoin is trading in the upper $68,000 range, down more than 20% from its recent high. The average purchase price of investors in spot Bitcoin ETFs is estimated to be around $80,000. As a result, most ETF holders are currently underwater, and the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has fallen below 1, signaling entry into a severe stress phase where unrealized losses are weighing heavily on the market.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for five consecutive weeks—the longest streak since the tariff shock in early 2025—with approximately $3.8 billion withdrawn. In particular, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is hovering around $38.42, significantly below its average purchase price, facing a substantial sell wall from investors seeking to break even whenever prices attempt a rebound.
These large-scale outflows are not merely the result of negative market sentiment but stem from broader risk-off behavior triggered by macroeconomic uncertainties, including controversy over tariff policies under the Trump administration, global trade tensions, and shifting expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts. Nevertheless, cumulative net inflows since launch still stand at approximately $54 billion, and total net assets remain above $85 billion to $86 billion, suggesting that the current downturn represents a position-clearing phase to cool overheating rather than a structural collapse.
Notably, even as spot Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) ETFs experience concurrent outflows, capital rotation is occurring within the crypto ecosystem. Over the same five-week period, $14.3 million flowed into spot Solana ETFs and $1.8 million into spot XRP ETFs, indicating that institutions are maintaining crypto exposure while reallocating capital toward altcoins like XRP in line with changing risk appetites.
The outlet assessed that Bitcoin and IBIT are currently in a holding phase with potential tactical buying opportunities rather than outright sell conditions. If the MVRV ratio stabilizes in the 0.8 to 0.9 range and outflows ease, a strong mean-reversion rally toward $75,000 to $80,000 could materialize. However, if support in the upper $50,000 range breaks down, additional ETF-driven loss realization could compound declines, potentially pushing prices into the low $30 range or even lower.
Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference purposes only and does not assume responsibility for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.