Is Ethereum’s Six-Year Long-Term Trendline About to Break?

2026-02-19(목) 11:02
이더리움(ETH), 하락/AI 생성 이미지

▲ Ethereum (ETH) Decline / AI-Generated Image ©

As the cryptocurrency market searches for direction amid deepening uncertainty, Ethereum (ETH) has arrived at a critical test of support at the $2,000 level, a six-year long-term trendline that has been in place since 2020. Bitcoin (BTC) is also showing fragile price action near the lower boundary of its range at $67,000, heightening a sense of tension across the broader market.

According to investment media outlet FXEmpire on February 19 (local time), the total cryptocurrency market capitalization fell more than 1% over the past 24 hours to $2.31 trillion. Although this is close to last week’s low, it remains 5% higher than the February 6 bottom. The outlet analyzed that as market volatility continues to narrow, a significant breakout beyond the $2.3 trillion to $2.4 trillion range is likely in the near term. Considering signs of slowing growth in U.S. equities, it added that the market is more likely to retest local lows seen in the second half of 2024 at an earlier stage.

Bitcoin, the market leader, is down less than 1% and is barely holding above $67,000. It has shown relative resilience as aggressive selling has been concentrated in altcoins outside the top five by market capitalization. However, it remains precariously positioned at the bottom of a downward channel that has persisted for the past week and a half.

Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, is drawing particular attention as it tests a key support level. Ethereum is currently sitting on a six-year long-term trendline that began in 2020 and was also touched in early 2024 and again at this February’s low. This macro trendline overlaps with the psychological support level around $2,000, underscoring its importance. The outlet noted that confirming a significant breakdown of the six-year trendline would require a drop below the recent low of $1,500. Until then, bullish investors are expected to sustain optimism by attracting long-term buyers during price declines.

Meanwhile, mixed signals are emerging within the market. According to CryptoQuant, the indicator tracking Bitcoin inflows to Binance from large holders has reached record levels, suggesting increasing selling pressure from whales. CMCC Crest co-founder Willy Woo warned that Bitcoin is still only in the first stage of a bear market and will need to go through a second phase aligned with a global equity downturn before stabilizing in a third stage. In contrast, Strategy demonstrated firm institutional demand by purchasing an additional 2,486 Bitcoin last week at an average price of $67,710.

The Ethereum ecosystem is also delivering mixed news. According to Santiment, the Ethereum staking ratio has surpassed 50% of total supply for the first time in history, and BlackRock has taken initial steps toward introducing staking features in a U.S.-listed spot Ethereum ETF. However, reports that billionaire Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund liquidated its entire stake in ETHZilla, one of the largest corporate holders of Ethereum, have dampened investor sentiment. Adding to concerns is the upcoming U.S. Internal Revenue Service (IRS) regulation requiring stricter disclosure of customer transaction information by cryptocurrency exchanges starting in 2026, further unsettling American investors.

Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses resulting from reliance on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.

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