 ▲ Dogecoin (DOGE) © |
Despite its recent weakness, Dogecoin (DOGE) is projected to retain the possibility of a gradual rise through the end of 2026.
According to cryptocurrency outlet Finbold on February 17 (local time), based on data from Polymarket rather than the decentralized prediction market Myriad, traders are betting on the probability that Dogecoin will reach specific price levels before January 1, 2026. The highest probability, at 78%, was assigned to reaching at least $0.06. The probability of hitting $0.16 was 55%, while $0.20 stood at 33%. The chances of reaching $0.24 and $0.28 were 26% and 18%, respectively, and $0.52 was only 17%, with probabilities for levels above $0.40 remaining in the single to mid-teen digits.
Conversely, the probability of falling below $0.02 was estimated at 10%. Taken together, the overall probability distribution suggests that a peak around $0.16 in 2026 is considered most likely. This reflects cautious market sentiment anticipating limited upside rather than excessive surges.
Looking at recent price action, Dogecoin surged about 47% earlier this month to around $0.117 before undergoing a correction that erased much of those gains. As of the time of reporting, the price stood at $0.098, down about 4% over the past 24 hours but still up 6% on a weekly basis.
On the fundamental side, some positive signals have emerged. Social media mentions increased by 33%, and Elon Musk stated that X Money is currently in internal testing with an external beta launch approaching, raising expectations about the potential use of Dogecoin within the payment system.
However, technical pressure remains. Dogecoin is trading below its 50-day simple moving average of $0.1227 and its 200-day simple moving average of $0.1703, indicating continued short- and mid- to long-term downside pressure. The 14-day Relative Strength Index stands at 45.04, positioning it in neutral territory but below the 50 level, suggesting prevailing selling pressure.
Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses resulting from its use. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.