 ▲ Did the probability of Jesus’ Second Coming beat Bitcoin returns?/ChatGPT-generated image |
Amid a sharp downturn in Bitcoin prices, one of the most bizarre predictions unexpectedly rose to the top of return rankings, revealing a striking irony in the cryptocurrency market.
According to CoinDesk, a cryptocurrency-focused media outlet, as of February 8 (local time), the implied probability of the “Second Coming of Jesus Christ in 2026” contract traded on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket has climbed to around 4%. This marks more than a doubling from about 1.8% in early January, with the contract’s “Yes” position recording a gain of over 120% in just over a month.
As of Friday, the contract was trading at $0.04, reflecting the market’s assessment of a 4% chance that the event will occur by the end of 2026. Structurally, a “Yes” share pays out $1 if the event occurs and $0 if it does not, while a “No” share works in the opposite manner.
During the same period, Bitcoin (BTC) followed a completely different trajectory. Bitcoin has fallen about 18% so far this year, pressured by concerns that quantum computing could threaten cryptographic systems, anxieties related to hedge funds, and a broader risk-off sentiment across global markets. As a result, even a meme-like prediction contract appeared relatively resilient, creating a paradoxical scene.
CoinDesk explained that this movement on Polymarket highlights how thinly liquid prediction markets can swing sharply with even small buying activity, much like small-cap stocks or micro-cap tokens. In particular, the “Second Coming” contract is generally viewed by investors as a curiosity-driven trade rather than a serious forecast, given that it can only be resolved as “Yes” if multiple credible sources agree.
Nevertheless, this case underscores Polymarket’s role as a real-time barometer of online interest spanning politics, popular culture, and religion. At a time when Bitcoin has lost its sense of direction, the fact that the strangest corner of the crypto market is rising offers investors a bitterly ironic commentary.
Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and no responsibility is taken for any investment losses based on this information. The content should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.