 ▲ Coinbase and Bitcoin (BTC) / AI-generated image © |
The stock surged 17% despite earnings missing expectations. More than the numbers, the message from Coinbase’s CEO moved the market.
According to crypto media outlet Watcher.Guru on February 13 (local time), shares of Coinbase (COIN), the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, jumped 17% shortly after the market opened following its fourth-quarter earnings release. The company reported a net loss of $2.49 per share for Q4 2025, reversing from earnings of $4.68 per share a year earlier and falling well short of market expectations of $1 per share in profit.
On an adjusted basis, Coinbase posted earnings of $0.66 per share, beating expectations of $0.56. However, revenue declined 22% to $1.78 billion, slightly below the consensus estimate of $1.8 billion. On the surface, the earnings miss was clear, yet the stock moved sharply higher.
During the earnings conference call, CEO Brian Armstrong said, “Coinbase has gone through many of these cycles,” emphasizing that “crypto adoption continues to grow, regulatory clarity is approaching, and we are more bullish than ever.” He explained that the company’s revenue structure has become less tied to crypto price volatility through expanded stablecoin operations, growing subscription and services revenue, and support for trading in new asset classes such as equities, prediction markets, and commodities.
Coinbase projected first-quarter 2026 subscription and services revenue to range between $550 million and $630 million. However, FactSet data shows that market expectations for the segment stand at $747 million, higher than the company’s guidance. Despite this, Wall Street analysts noted that key indicators remain strong, including a doubling of trading volume and market share in 2025, as well as expansion of its derivatives platform and increased stablecoin adoption.
Ultimately, the sharp rally appears to reflect the market’s focus on structural growth and improving regulatory conditions rather than short-term earnings. Whether Coinbase can continue diversifying its business and expanding market share amid a correction phase in crypto prices is likely to determine the stock’s future trajectory.
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