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Geopolitical shockwaves from the Middle East pushed Bitcoin (BTC) down to $63,019 before lifting it back to $68,200 within just a few hours, triggering $657 million in liquidations over 24 hours.
According to investment outlet Trading News on March 1 (local time), news of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran sent BTC plunging from $66,000 to $63,019, wiping $128 billion from the total cryptocurrency market capitalization in an instant. However, after Iranian state media reported confirmation of the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, BTC rebounded sharply from the $63,000 range to $68,200. During this process, approximately 157,000 traders were liquidated, with total positions worth $657 million closed.
Analysts say thin weekend liquidity amplified the decline. With Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures and spot crypto ETF creations and redemptions paused in the U.S., intraday spot selling directly pressured order books. Bitcoin-related liquidations totaled $196 million, while Ethereum saw $132 million. Long and short positions were closed at nearly a 50-50 ratio, indicating no clear directional dominance.
Nevertheless, spot Bitcoin ETF funds—considered a structural price floor—remain resilient. Cumulative net inflows stand at approximately $55 billion, with total net assets around $83.4 billion. Despite a 48% price decline from the peak in October last year, ETF holdings have fallen by only about 6%. Over the past three trading days, $1 billion flowed in, while the previous day’s outflow amounted to just $27.55 million, suggesting limited signs of institutional capital withdrawal.
Technically, analysts note that Bitcoin is approaching oversold territory amid a broader downtrend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 36.05, below neutral, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 48.25 signals a strong downward trend. The Bollinger Band midline is at $68,452 and the lower band at $61,045, with the $60,000–$63,000 range identified as key support. The 200-day moving average sits at $97,898, approximately 46% above the current price.
Long-term outlooks remain divided. Jeff Kendrick of Standard Chartered maintains a $500,000 target for 2030, while Ark Invest presents a base-case scenario of $710,000. In the short term, the opening of U.S. stock markets and ETF fund flows are seen as pivotal factors in determining whether the $63,000 support level holds.
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