 ▲ Cardano (ADA) © |
Cardano failed to break through the $0.29 resistance level and stalled at $0.28, resulting in a mixed market where expectations of a rebound clash with bearish signals.
According to investment media outlet FXStreet on February 18 (local time), Cardano (ADA) has been fluctuating around the $0.28 level after failing to clear a key resistance zone over the weekend. With derivatives and on-chain indicators sending conflicting signals, analysts say short-term recovery potential remains limited.
In the derivatives market, bearish sentiment is evident. Cardano futures open interest has declined to $436 million, continuing a downward trend since mid-January. This figure is close to the $407 million recorded on February 12, indicating decreasing investor participation. According to Coinglass data, the open interest-weighted funding rate has turned negative at -0.0130%. This suggests that short positions are dominant, nearing the levels seen on February 6 when Cardano experienced a sharp drop.
On-chain indicators, however, present a contrasting picture. Santiment’s supply distribution data shows that whale wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA and those holding between 10 million and 100 million ADA have accumulated a total of 240 million ADA since February 11. This suggests that some large investors have been buying the dip during the price correction. However, Santiment’s social dominance metric has been on a downward trend since late December, falling to 0.038% as of Wednesday. This indicates weakening market interest and investor sentiment.
Technically, Cardano is at a crossroads. It encountered resistance at $0.29, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level measured from the January 14 high of $0.42 to the February 6 low of $0.22. After dropping 4.47% on Sunday alone, the token is currently moving sideways around $0.28. If the correction continues, a retest of the weekly support at $0.24 is being considered.
On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 44, below the neutral 50 level, indicating strengthening bearish momentum. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) formed a golden cross on February 13 and has maintained it, suggesting that the bullish bias has not been entirely invalidated. If Cardano breaks above $0.29 on a daily closing basis, the rebound could extend toward the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.32.
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