 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC) |
Bitcoin (BTC) stands at a critical crossroads that will determine whether it breaks through the psychological resistance level of $75,000 for further gains or enters a full-fledged bearish phase.
According to crypto-focused outlet Cointelegraph on Feb. 16 (local time), Bitcoin faces a crucial test this week: the potential for a short squeeze to fuel a price rebound and heightened volatility driven by upcoming macroeconomic data releases. Although Bitcoin closed last week above its 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) of $68,343, it is encountering strong resistance near the previous 2021 all-time high around $69,000 as it searches for its next direction.
Market data analysis shows that liquidation levels in the derivatives market remain elevated. Over the past 24 hours alone, more than $250 million in liquidations occurred, with a heavy concentration of long positions below $68,000, making them targets for large holders. However, when Bitcoin surpassed $70,000 last Friday, short liquidations recorded their highest level since September 2024, signaling that downward pressure may be gradually easing.
This week’s macroeconomic environment is fraught with uncertainty. The release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, along with revised fourth-quarter GDP figures, is expected to increase volatility in risk assets. The market currently assigns a more than 90% probability that the Fed will hold interest rates steady at the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Mixed employment data and uncertainty over the timing of potential rate cuts are exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price.
On-chain data also signals warning signs. According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) has fallen below the baseline of 1, entering a loss-realization zone similar to the final stages of the 2023 bear market. This suggests the possibility of a “regime shift” beyond a simple price correction, indicating a structural transition into a bearish phase. If the 1.0 level is not quickly reclaimed, further downside could intensify.
Bitcoin’s potential bottom range is projected near $55,800, where the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) aligns with the realized price. With the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio and the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator—both regarded as measures of investor sentiment—remaining in the fear zone, investor resilience will likely be the key to any price rebound. Global investors are closely watching whether Bitcoin can stage a surprise rally by breaking above $75,000 or slide toward the mid-$50,000 range and enter a prolonged downturn.
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