 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC) |
Analysis suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) may have already passed a significant low or could be close to forming one, though the possibility of another lower low cannot yet be ruled out.
According to investment media outlet FXEmpire on March 2 (local time), based on the Elliott Wave principle, Bitcoin has entered a bottoming process and is likely currently unfolding a fourth wave characterized by sideways movement or a mild decline. A previous analysis projected a rebound to around $73,000 followed by a final fifth-wave decline toward the mid-to-high $50,000 range, and this scenario remains valid.
The current short-term structure is interpreted as an extended orange fourth wave subdividing into multiple a-b-c corrective waves. In this case, the rebound range is open between $74,000 and $83,000. However, under the rule that a fourth wave cannot overlap the second wave of the same degree, the price must not exceed $91,140. A breakout above $87,190 would be considered a strong signal that a more meaningful bottom has already been established.
An alternative scenario was also presented. If the late-January price movement is reinterpreted as a more complex second-wave correction, the conditions for a bullish reversal become clear. First, Bitcoin must hold the February 6 low of $60,069, while a drop below $62,551 would increase the likelihood of further downside. Conversely, a breakout above $72,226, formed on February 8, could open the way for an upward wave toward $82,314.
However, even such a breakout rally may be difficult to distinguish from the existing fourth-wave rebound path. Ultimately, the completion of a five-wave structure in gray and confirmation of a trend reversal are required to declare the end of the bearish phase. For now, key price levels remain the crucial yardstick for determining direction.
The analyst noted that “Bitcoin has risen only about 9% from its February 6 low,” adding that it is premature to conclude that the opportunity to buy at the bottom has been missed. For investors who do not use a dollar-cost averaging strategy, a lower low or a slightly higher low in the future could present the next low-risk buying opportunity.
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