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Bitcoin (BTC) successfully staged a surprise rebound by breaking above the $69,000 level, but technical indicators on the daily chart continue to warn that the shadow of a downtrend remains heavy, urging investors to proceed with caution.
According to cryptocurrency media outlet Decrypt on March 9 (local time), despite macroeconomic anxiety reaching a peak—such as international oil prices briefly nearing $120 following U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran and the Wall Street fear gauge, the VIX, surpassing 35, its highest level in a year—Bitcoin defied expectations by rising 4.78% to trade at $69,128, moving in the opposite direction as a perceived safe-haven asset.
However, behind this surface-level rally lie unsettling technical flaws. Although Bitcoin appeared to break out of a descending triangle pattern last week, it ultimately formed an inverted doji with a long upper shadow and slipped back inside the pattern, falling into the classic trap of a false breakout.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) currently stands at 33.7, indicating entry into a strong trend zone, but the figure—previously higher during the bear market—is showing signs of easing, suggesting an ongoing tug-of-war. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 49.3, is clinging to the neutral zone, reflecting a lack of conviction among buyers to reverse the trend.
In particular, the Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) are sending the clearest bearish signal. The 50-day EMA, which reflects short-term momentum, remains below the 200-day EMA, and the gap is widening, demonstrating that recent price action is significantly weaker than the long-term trend.
Ultimately, for sellers to fully capitulate, Bitcoin must move beyond a simple intraday rebound and break decisively through the resistance range between $73,000 and $75,000—where the 50-day EMA is positioned—accompanied by strong trading volume. If it even surrenders the heavily traded support zone of $65,000 to $66,000, the market could remain on a precarious cliff edge, with a rapid سقوط toward $60,000 possible in the near term.
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