 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC)/ChatGPT-generated image |
An analysis suggesting that the key driver determining Bitcoin (BTC) prices is not central bank interest rate policy but the scale of government bond issuance is offering a new perspective on liquidity supply routes in the virtual asset market.
According to cryptocurrency-focused media outlet Cointelegraph, digital asset investment firm and market maker Keyrock recently reported that the liquidity indicator with the greatest influence on Bitcoin prices is not the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet but the issuance volume of short-term Treasury bills. Amir Hajian, a researcher at Keyrock, estimated that for every 1% change in global liquidity levels, Bitcoin price volatility in the following business quarter moves by approximately 7.6%. In particular, short-term Treasury issuance has shown a high correlation of about 80% with Bitcoin prices since 2021 and has tended to lead price movements by roughly eight months.
An increase in government bond issuance secures funding for spending that flows into the real economy, ultimately creating a virtuous cycle in which capital moves into risk assets such as Bitcoin. Conversely, when bond issuance decreases or turns negative, this fiscal support disappears. Hajian directly challenged the conventional belief that central bank interest rate policy is the primary driver of asset prices, emphasizing instead that liquidity supplied through fiscal policy is the true source of liquidity in the Bitcoin market.
The institutionalization of the digital asset market is also altering this sensitivity to liquidity. The report found that the entry of institutional investors and the expansion of spot Bitcoin ETFs have reduced Bitcoin’s liquidity sensitivity by about 23%. With large-scale capital supporting the market, its resilience to external liquidity shocks has strengthened compared to the past. Considering the current liquidity environment, Keyrock projected that global liquidity will begin to have a full-fledged impact on Bitcoin prices between late 2026 and early 2027.
The massive U.S. debt repayment cycle also suggests that substantial liquidity could flow into the digital asset market in the coming years. Of the roughly $38 trillion in outstanding U.S. national debt, a significant portion is set to mature within the next four years, requiring the U.S. Treasury to refinance it at higher interest rates. Hajian 전망ed that, to roll over this debt, U.S. short-term Treasury issuance will remain between $600 billion and $800 billion annually through 2028, continuously injecting liquidity into the market.
Ultimately, liquidity expansion driven by government bond issuance acts as a catalyst that further strengthens Bitcoin’s position as a store of value. Rather than reacting to expectations of interest rate cuts, monitoring the U.S. Treasury’s fiscal operations and bond issuance trends may serve as a more accurate gauge for predicting future Bitcoin prices. As global liquidity reaches a turning point, Bitcoin is likely to regain attention as one of the strongest beneficiary assets in an era of fiscal expansion.
Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference purposes only and does not accept responsibility for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.