Bitcoin on Edge as Loss Ratio Surpasses 45%, Fate Hinges Here

2026-03-12(목) 12:03
비트코인(BTC)

▲ Bitcoin (BTC)

Bitcoin (BTC) has repeatedly faltered in front of the $72,000 resistance level, entering what investors describe as the most painful psychological stalemate, testing market patience.

According to cryptocurrency outlet Cointelegraph on March 11 (local time), Bitcoin has failed multiple attempts to break through the $72,000 resistance line, marking one of the most challenging phases of this cycle. On-chain data shows that as prices remain trapped within a specific range, psychological stress among market participants has reached extreme levels. Experts warn that this stagnation may signal not just a simple correction but the beginning of prolonged uncertainty that erodes investor conviction.

CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu highlighted the sharp increase in the proportion of Bitcoin supply currently held at a loss. The share of loss-making supply, which stood at about 22% in mid-January, has surged to between 40% and 45%, heightening market tension. “An increase in loss supply indicates intensifying market stress,” Woominkyu explained, adding, “Historically, this phase has appeared in the latter stages of bear markets, when even the most convicted investors experience confusion.”

Technical analysts are also underscoring the importance of the $72,000 level. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades wrote on X (formerly Twitter) that Bitcoin is currently stuck in a tight range amid highly indecisive price action. Analyst BenCrypz noted that a clean breakout above $72,000 could ignite strong bullish momentum, but failure to overcome the resistance could push the price back toward support at $69,000 or even $66,000.

Some experts are presenting a more pessimistic outlook, suggesting the current bearish trend could extend through the end of 2026. If Bitcoin fails to secure firm support levels, cautious projections even point to a potential additional drop toward $30,000 in a worst-case scenario. Repeated failures to breach resistance are dampening new capital inflows, increasing selling pressure from existing holders, and weighing on overall market vitality.

Bitcoin now stands at a psychological crossroads, facing the formidable $72,000 barrier without clear direction. With a growing proportion of long-term holders in loss positions and heightened volatility in the futures market, conditions call for more caution than ever. Global investors are closely watching whether Bitcoin can stage a reversal by breaking resistance or undergo further declines to confirm a bottom.

Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses arising from its use. The content should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.

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