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As Bitcoin (BTC) repeatedly fails to break above the $70,000 level and faces mounting downward pressure, analysis suggesting that on-chain indicators are nearing an undervalued zone is complicating investors’ calculations. Unlike in the past, this downturn began without a clear overheating phase, and it is expected to become a new test that will determine the market’s future direction.
According to cryptocurrency outlet Bitcoinist on February 14 (local time), Bitcoin has been on a downward trend for about four months since reaching a new all-time high in October 2025. Crushed by persistent selling pressure and repeatedly failing to reclaim $70,000, some market observers warn that if the current fragile trend continues, a deeper correction below $60,000 could follow.
However, a recent report from CryptoQuant highlighted changes in on-chain indicators that contrast with the gloomy market sentiment. According to the analysis, the widely used Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is currently hovering around 1.1, approaching levels historically associated with accumulation phases. When this indicator falls below 1, it is interpreted as an “undervalued” state in which the asset is trading below its aggregate cost basis. Although it has not yet crossed that threshold, the data suggests that downside risk is gradually becoming compressed.
Notably, this market cycle appears distinctly different from previous bull runs. In past cycles, prices plunged only after entering clearly overheated and overvalued territory. This time, however, the correction arrived without such extreme overheating. This implies that the current downturn may not follow the typical capitulation dynamics seen at the bottom of previous bear markets, making simple historical comparisons more difficult.
From a strategic perspective, such periods of market weakness can offer some of the most effective opportunities to build long-term positions. While short-term volatility risks remain due to macroeconomic liquidity uncertainty and sharp shifts in investor sentiment, experts generally agree that preparing during downturns can enhance risk-adjusted returns for assets with long-term upward trajectories.
Technical analysis also indicates that strong defensive levels are still needed. Since peaking between $120,000 and $125,000 in late 2025, Bitcoin has formed a downtrend marked by consistently lower highs and lower lows, trading below both the 50-week and 100-week moving averages. If selling pressure persists, the psychological $60,000 level will likely serve as the first line of support. A genuine trend reversal, however, would require reclaiming $70,000 and stabilizing above key moving averages.
Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and the publisher is not responsible for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.