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Bitcoin (BTC) has recorded its worst first-quarter decline since 2018 and is now facing the risk of breaking below the psychological support level of $60,000. Adding to investor anxiety, a classic bearish continuation pattern known as a bear flag has been detected on the charts.
According to cryptocurrency media outlet BeInCrypto on February 17 (local time), Bitcoin has fallen about 22% this year, putting it on track for its weakest first-quarter performance in eight years. After starting the year around $87,700, nearly $20,000 in value evaporated within just a few weeks, marking an unusual bout of weakness. This drop is considered the most severe since the 50% crash during the 2018 bear market. While there have been multiple instances of weak first-quarter performances over the past 13 years, consecutive declines in January and February this year have amplified market uncertainty.
Some analysts warn that the recent 9% price rebound could instead act as a catalyst for further declines. BeInCrypto reporter Peter Wind noted that during the rebound, Bitcoin futures open interest surged by approximately $1.9 billion, rising from $19.6 billion to $21.47 billion. With funding rates posting strongly positive readings, overcrowded long positions driven by optimism have formed. If the price breaks below support levels, large-scale liquidations could occur, intensifying downward pressure.
From a technical perspective, a bear flag pattern—characterized by a temporary rebound within a broader downtrend—has become clearly visible. On the 12-hour chart, a bearish divergence has formed, with lower highs in price but higher highs in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), indicating that selling pressure is regaining control of the market. On-chain data analytics firm Santiment also pointed out that a sharp rise in the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio signals growing short-term profit-taking, adding to selling pressure.
The most urgent issue now is whether Bitcoin can hold support at the $66,270 level. If this support decisively breaks, the price is likely to fall further toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at around $58,800, implying an additional correction of about 14% from current levels. Conversely, for buyers to reverse the market trend, Bitcoin would need to break decisively above $79,290 and establish stability above that level to invalidate the current bearish structure.
Bitcoin’s dominance in the cryptocurrency market remains at around 58.5%, showing relative strength compared to altcoins. Major publicly listed companies, including Strategy, collectively holding more than 1.13 million BTC, provide a strong layer of institutional support that underpins long-term confidence. Although Bitcoin faces short-term technical downward pressure, institutional accumulation and its market dominance remain solid, serving as key variables that will determine its next price direction.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. We are not responsible for any investment losses resulting from reliance on this content.