 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC) |
Bitcoin (BTC) has plunged more than 20% over the past month, intensifying debate over where the bottom of the current downturn may lie. Against this backdrop, analysts are citing technical indicators and on-chain data to point to the mid-$30,000 range as a potential bottom.
According to crypto-focused outlet BeInCrypto on February 10 (local time), Bitcoin retreated to the $60,000 level on February 6 before rebounding into the $70,000 range, continuing a highly volatile trading environment. In a recent report, 10x Research noted that despite sentiment and technical indicators reaching extreme levels, the broader macro downtrend remains intact. In particular, capital outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs—including spot Ethereum ETFs—and increased conversions into stablecoins suggest that investors are prioritizing risk management over bargain hunting.
Market analyst Ardi, after analyzing Fibonacci retracement levels that marked bottoms in past cycles, projected that Bitcoin could fall further to $39,176. This level aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement that marked the bottom during the 2022 bear market. Analyst Nehal also suggested a final bottom near $38,000—representing a 70% decline from this cycle’s peak of $126,000—based on a historical pattern in which drawdowns shrink by roughly 7% with each successive cycle. On-chain data specialist Ted Pillows identified $34,500, about 15% below the long-term holder realized price of $40,300, as a potential lower bound.
On the other hand, a strong counterargument holds that Bitcoin is unlikely to fall below $50,000, citing growing institutional participation and changes in market structure. An anonymous analyst argued that institutions, having completed the launch of spot ETFs, absorbed trillions of won in capital inflows, and built the necessary infrastructure, would not tolerate a drop below $50,000 that would undermine their investment thesis. He added that under the current market structure, a breakdown below $50,000 would require systemic failures beyond mere deterioration in market sentiment.
Attention is also focused on the Sharpe ratio, a key technical indicator, which has fallen to -10—its lowest level since March 2023. Analyst Darkfost explained that negative Sharpe ratio readings have historically appeared near the final stage of bear markets, indicating that the risk-to-reward profile has entered an extremely attractive zone. However, he cautioned that such indicators do not necessarily signal an immediate end to the downturn, but rather suggest that a prolonged and tedious bottoming process could persist over the next several months.
Bitcoin is currently testing support around the $70,000 level while searching for its next directional move. Although analysts’ views on the bear market bottom range from the mid-$30,000s to defending the $50,000 level, there is broad agreement that the market is approaching the final phase of capitulation selling. With long-term forecasts emerging that envision a complete bottom forming around $30,000 by the end of 2026 followed by several years of a powerful rally, investors are closely monitoring shifts in on-chain data to identify entry opportunities hidden amid short-term volatility.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and no responsibility is assumed for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.*