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As Bitcoin (BTC) fell to the $65,000 range, claims of a “Jane Street 10 a.m. dump” spread online, but experts dismissed the allegation as a misunderstanding of market structure.
According to investment media outlet FXStreet on Feb. 27 (local time), as Bitcoin declined to around $65,000, online claims circulated that high-frequency trading firm Jane Street intentionally suppressed prices at 10 a.m., the opening of the U.S. market, through spot ETF-related selling. The allegation centers on Jane Street’s role as an authorized participant (AP) for spot Bitcoin ETFs, asserting that it exerted downward pressure on prices during arbitrage processes.
However, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan characterized the claim as an extension of recurring crypto conspiracy theories. Referring to similar past accusations targeting Binance and Wintermute, he explained that the recent weakness is the result of a typical cyclical correction driven by spot holder selling, liquidation of leveraged positions, and the expansion of covered call strategies. “Many long-position holders have reduced exposure,” he said, suggesting that much of the selling pressure may already be reflected in the market.
Economist and trader Alex Krüger also denied the theory of Jane Street’s intervention. He argued that the process by which APs and basis traders align price discrepancies between spot, futures, and ETFs is part of normal price discovery and should not be viewed as price suppression. ETF arbitrage structurally serves to balance the spot and futures markets, distinguishing it from pure supply-demand distortions, he explained.
Vetle Lunde of K33 Research analyzed 606,513 minutes of minute-by-minute returns from Jan. 1, 2025, to Feb. 26, 2026, and found that the average return at 10 a.m. was 0.207 basis points, ranking as the 359th strongest period of the day. This places it within the top 25% of all intervals, indicating that the data does not support claims of a consistent “dump” pattern at that specific hour. Even when narrowing the scope to November 2025 through February 2026, the average return was -1.41 basis points, remaining within the range of typical volatility.
Meanwhile, Jane Street is involved in litigation related to the 2022 collapse of Terraform Labs, with allegations that it avoided more than $200 million in losses by using inside information. Prosecutors claim that approximately $40 billion in value evaporated from the Terra-Luna ecosystem at the time. However, as there is no evidence directly linking the current decline in Bitcoin prices to market manipulation, experts assess that it is reasonable to view this correction as a cyclical pressure driven by macroeconomic conditions and market structure.
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