 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC) decline / AI-generated image |
Despite the recent rebound rally, warnings are emerging that the downturn could deepen as Bitcoin (BTC) has failed to reclaim the $70,000 level.
According to BeInCrypto, Bitcoin’s upward momentum remains limited due to selling pressure that has persisted for weeks. On-chain data and past cycle analysis suggest that the current downtrend may not yet be over. While short-term rebounds are possible, structural indicators show a high likelihood that Bitcoin will remain below $70,000 for the time being.
One of the most closely watched indicators, the Pi Cycle Top Indicator, suggests that the market is currently in a mid-phase bearish consolidation rather than being overheated or undervalued. In Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, similar mid-phase downturns have historically lasted more than a year. Analyzing the movements of the 111-day and 350-day moving averages indicates a higher probability of continued decline rather than recovery.
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which reflects investors’ realized profit conditions, is also adding to concerns. SOPR remaining below the benchmark level of 1 means that many investors are selling their assets at a loss. A reading below 1 indicates that market participants’ profitability is extremely limited, which acts as a significant barrier to price recovery.
Analyst Aaryamann Shrivastava explained that investors selling at a loss reflects widespread fear in the market. Observers note that until the SOPR indicator stably climbs back above 1, Bitcoin is unlikely to secure strong upward momentum.
From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin has been trapped under a downward resistance line for about a month. Without strong buying pressure, breaking through this resistance appears difficult. The Money Flow Index also shows that capital outflows outweigh inflows. Global macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions are fueling investors’ risk-off sentiment, limiting aggressive capital inflows.
If Bitcoin fails to hold the $65,000 level, there is a risk of falling to the support level at $62,893. However, if market sentiment improves sharply and Bitcoin secures support at $66,224 with fresh capital inflows, it could attempt to challenge the $68,830 resistance level again. A decisive move above $70,000 would invalidate the current bearish outlook.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and no responsibility is taken for any investment losses resulting from it. The content should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.*