 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH)/ChatGPT-generated image |
As the massive options expiration date for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) approaches, capital flows totaling $3.1 billion are expected to amplify volatility in the cryptocurrency market.
According to crypto-focused media outlet BeInCrypto on February 20 (local time), approximately $1.9 billion worth of Bitcoin options and $1.2 billion worth of Ethereum options will expire simultaneously this Friday. Data from crypto derivatives exchange Deribit shows that the maximum pain price for Bitcoin is formed around $65,000, while Ethereum’s stands near $1,900. The put/call ratio is 0.62 for Bitcoin and 0.44 for Ethereum, suggesting that bullish sentiment still dominates the broader market.
In the Bitcoin options market, call options significantly outnumber put options, yet prices are under strong pressure to converge toward the maximum pain level. The maximum pain price represents the point at which option buyers incur the greatest losses while issuers achieve maximum profit, effectively acting as an invisible hand in the market. With Bitcoin recently trading in a range around $67,000, an intense battle between buyers attempting to defend support levels and sellers pushing prices lower appears inevitable around the expiration date.
The Ethereum options market is also expected to see heightened volatility centered around its $1,900 maximum pain price, warranting investor caution. Although Ethereum has continued its downward trend following the recent breakdown of the $2,400 support level, its put/call ratio remains lower than Bitcoin’s at 0.44, reflecting expectations for a longer-term rebound. Analysts note that large-scale liquidations on the day of expiration may trigger short-term price corrections but could also mark a turning point where selling pressure begins to ease.
Amid growing macroeconomic uncertainty, global investors are closely watching the market’s directional move after the options expiration. Discussions surrounding U.S. cryptocurrency market structure legislation and shifts in the White House’s regulatory stance are key variables directly influencing derivatives market sentiment. As institutional participation continues to increase, this expiration is expected to serve as a critical stage in testing the crypto market’s integration into the regulated financial system.
Changes in liquidity following the options expiration could become a decisive catalyst for a trend reversal. Once large-scale option exercises are completed, some of the uncertainty weighing on the market may subside, though firm support at key price levels must be secured first. With Bitcoin’s ability to defend the $60,000 level currently shaping overall market sentiment, investors are advised to closely monitor post-expiration capital flows and maintain a cautious approach.
Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses resulting from reliance on this content. The information provided should be interpreted for informational purposes only.