 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC), U.S. Dollar (USD), Wall Street / AI-generated image |
Bitcoin (BTC) delivered a black-swan-level shock to the market after recording a historic drop, but indicators that have demonstrated remarkable accuracy in the past are now collectively sending strong bottom signals, hinting at the opening chapter of a major rebound.
Cryptocurrency analyst Lark Davis said in a video uploaded to his YouTube channel on February 9 (local time) that “Bitcoin experienced an unusual plunge to $59,000 last week, but has now recovered the $68,000 level, exiting an extreme oversold zone.” Davis highlighted that the weekly candle closed above the 200-day exponential moving average, stressing that entering a weekly oversold condition is a rare phenomenon that occurs only once every few years historically and is a powerful signal that a true market bottom is near.
Davis noted that Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell to as low as 15 during this decline, a level comparable to the extreme oversold conditions seen during the COVID-19 crisis. He explained that Bitcoin’s move to minus 5.65 standard deviations qualifies as a black-swan event that has occurred only 13 times over more than 5,000 trading days since 2010, and statistically, such sharp drops have always been followed by massive rallies. He added, “The current fear index stands at 5, an all-time low even below the level seen during the FTX collapse, and moments of extreme public fear are often the best opportunities.”
Optimistic outlooks from market experts are also emerging. Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, assessed that crypto fundamentals remain solid, citing a parabolic increase in active Ethereum (ETH) addresses. Davis also mentioned accumulation by companies holding large amounts of Bitcoin, such as Strategy Inc., along with rumors that U.S. President Donald Trump’s family has been acquiring Bitcoin. In particular, speculation that President Trump began building Bitcoin reserves around the $60,000 level is reinforcing market confidence.
Positive signals are also appearing in the altcoin market. Ethereum has proven real demand growth by setting a new all-time high with a 30-day moving average of 693,000 active addresses. Solana (SOL) has likewise confirmed support around the $83 level and is attempting a rebound, with some analysts even offering bold forecasts that Solana could reach $1,000 by 2026. Davis warned of macroeconomic shifts such as rising unemployment driven by the artificial intelligence boom, advising that securing as many assets as possible now is the only way to survive future economic inequality.
Davis stated that he is currently maintaining a long position in Bitcoin, having raised his stop-loss to $67,000 and set a target price of $82,000, where a Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gap exists. While stock market corrections remain a risk factor that could exert additional downside pressure on the crypto market, technical indicators and on-chain data suggest that the downtrend is easing. Bitcoin is now consolidating its base as it approaches a reclaim of the $70,000 level, positioning itself to enter a long-term recovery trajectory.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and no responsibility is taken for investment losses based on this content. The information should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*