Bitcoin Absorbs a Year’s Worth of Losses in Four Months… “Time to Bottom Out and Rebound”

Bitcoin (BTC) has reportedly entered an unprecedented oversold zone after absorbing what is typically a full year’s worth of losses in just four months. Analysts are also warning that the real risk in the crypto market is not the current price decline, but missing the massive recovery rally that may soon unfold.

On February 18 (local time), cryptocurrency analyst Dan Gambardello stated in a video on his YouTube channel that Bitcoin has entered oversold territory at an unusually rapid pace. He assessed that the total market capitalization of the crypto market has reset to levels similar to the historical bottoms seen during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets. Rather than abandoning positions out of fatigue from prolonged stagnation and volatility, he emphasized that now is the time for strategic positioning to get ahead of the upcoming recovery phase.

In the altcoin market, including SUI, there are clear signals of institutional investor entry. Grayscale’s launch of a SUI staking ETF and its classification of SUI as an official product is considered a significant milestone in the institutionalization of altcoins. While retail investors are exiting the market out of fear, major institutions such as 21Shares and Bitwise are expanding their market participation by signaling active accumulation through social media.

Macroeconomic indicators are also pointing to the start of a new business cycle for the crypto market. For the first time in six years, the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is approaching a move above 50, signaling expansion. This shift could serve as a strong driver for capital inflows into risk assets such as cryptocurrencies amid broader economic improvement. Gambardello stressed the need to watch whether upcoming PMI data will hold above 50 and confirm a definitive rebound signal.

Data-driven risk model analysis shows that current price levels represent a highly favorable undervalued zone for long-term investors. SUI’s risk score stands at 18, an extremely low level, and historically, when the score has been in this range, the probability of price appreciation one year later has reached 100%. The overall altcoin market risk score has also dropped to 12, marking one of the lowest bottom zones recorded since 2013.

Although the crypto market remains open to the possibility of further short-term declines and volatility, the long-term bullish outlook remains intact. Gambardello noted that while the current downturn may be painful, capturing historically recurring recovery opportunities is key to asset growth. At this stage of the market cycle, it is crucial to interpret data-driven recovery signals accurately and maintain a strategic stance.

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