 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Declines |
Bitcoin (BTC) is facing mounting tension among investors as analysts warn that before entering a full-fledged bull market, it may have to withstand sharp downward pressure toward historically significant indicators—the realized price and the balance price.
Benjamin Cowen, founder of IntoTheCryptoverse and a veteran trader, presented the realized price and balance price as key indicators for predicting Bitcoin’s bottom in a video posted on his YouTube channel on Feb. 12 (local time). Cowen emphasized the historical pattern in previous bear markets where Bitcoin first fell below the realized price before ultimately forming a bottom near the balance price. Currently, the realized price stands at around $55,000, while the balance price is positioned near $40,000.
A central part of the analysis is that the formation of this cycle’s peak differed from past patterns. Unlike previous instances when Bitcoin topped amid widespread public frenzy, Cowen noted that this time the peak formed during a period of waning interest and relative indifference. He compared the situation to 2019, just before the end of quantitative tightening, explaining that peaks formed without public FOMO are more likely to decline toward indicator-defined bottoms.
The seasonal downturn pattern typical of midterm election years also supports the possibility of further declines. Historically, bear markets in midterm years have featured a sharp early drop, followed by a prolonged sideways phase, and culminating in a final capitulation in the fourth quarter. Cowen expects this year to closely follow that cycle, forecasting additional downside around April or May, with a true bottom potentially confirmed only toward year-end.
He argues that the moment of psychological capitulation among market participants could paradoxically become an optimal buying opportunity. As long as bullish investors refuse to acknowledge a bear market and promote supercycle narratives, a true bottom is unlikely to form. The rebound may begin only when all investors abandon their bullish lens. Additionally, Bitcoin is currently trending lower relative to gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, a phenomenon that tends to become more pronounced during midterm election years.
Bitcoin is now passing through a critical inflection point where technical indicators and macroeconomic cycles intersect. Since the realized price and balance price are moving targets rather than fixed levels, flexible responses based on market conditions are essential. Investors are focusing less on short-term volatility and more on relative asset value shifts and cross-confirmation among on-chain indicators, maintaining a long-term perspective and disciplined risk management.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses resulting from it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.*