 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP / ChatGPT-generated image © |
An analysis suggests that the rebound potential of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP (Ripple) is being limited as retail investor participation declines and the derivatives market contracts.
According to investment outlet FXStreet on February 17 (local time), BTC is trading sideways around $68,000 while barely holding support at $67,000. Attempts to break above $70,000 have repeatedly failed. After falling 46% from its all-time high of $126,199, retail investors have shifted to a wait-and-see stance, and continued risk aversion has weakened the momentum for a rebound.
Derivatives indicators support this trend. Bitcoin futures open interest stands at approximately $43.44 billion, slightly down from $43.55 billion the previous day. Compared to its peak of $94.12 billion last October, it has fallen by more than half. The decline in open interest reflects weakened investor confidence and suggests that, in the short term, market participants are reluctant to increase exposure.
ETH shows a similar pattern. Futures open interest remains stagnant at around $23.47 billion. When ETH reached its all-time high of $4,956 in August last year, open interest had surged to $70.13 billion, but retail exposure has since dropped significantly. Currently, it is forming a narrow range between support at $1,937 and resistance in the low $2,000s. Further declines in open interest could accelerate the ongoing downtrend.
XRP is trading around $1.45, with upside capped below $1.50. The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, at $1.72, $1.93, and $2.14 respectively, are all sloping downward, confirming an overall bearish trend. However, the MACD remains above its signal line, generating a buy signal, while the Money Flow Index has broken above the 50 level, indicating potential capital inflows. A breakout above the $1.50 sell pressure zone could open the door for a rebound toward $1.67.
Technical pressure persists on Bitcoin’s daily chart as well. The 50-day EMA at $80,219, the 100-day EMA at $87,105, and the 200-day EMA at $93,629 are all trending downward, acting as resistance levels. If $68,000 breaks down, selling pressure could intensify toward $67,294 and further to the demand zone at $65,118. On the other hand, the MACD remains above the zero line with expanding green histogram bars, and the Money Flow Index is rebounding from the 40 level, leaving open the possibility of a recovery in risk appetite. A move back above $70,000 would set the next target at $72,271.
Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any losses resulting from investment decisions based on it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.