 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC) |
Arthur Hayes, a prominent Bitcoin (BTC) bull, has presented a cautious strategy, stating that he will hold off on additional purchases until the Federal Reserve eases its monetary policy.
On March 10 (local time), cryptocurrency-focused media outlet Cointelegraph reported that BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is taking a cautious approach to Bitcoin investment due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Appearing on a recent podcast, Hayes remarked that even if he had capital ready to deploy immediately, he would refrain from buying Bitcoin for now and instead wait, signaling that he is closely monitoring the market’s direction.
Hayes analyzed that Bitcoin’s price movements are more sensitive to central bank liquidity policies than to war itself. He suggested that if conflicts in the Middle East become prolonged, the United States may issue large amounts of money through the Federal Reserve to support war-related spending. Hayes emphasized that the optimal time to accumulate Bitcoin again would be when the central bank expands the money supply and rolls back its tightening policies.
He also issued a warning about a potential market downturn. Although Bitcoin remains significantly below its all-time high of $126,000 recorded last October, Hayes raised the possibility that the bottom has not yet been confirmed. He warned that if tensions between the United States and Iran escalate, simultaneous sell-offs in equities and crypto markets could occur, potentially triggering a cascade of liquidations that drives Bitcoin below $60,000.
Despite his short-term caution, Hayes remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term value. He predicted that the period during which Bitcoin trades below $100,000 will not last long and has not withdrawn his previous forecast that it could reach $250,000 by the end of this year. However, he believes that for now, maintaining a higher cash position and waiting for opportunities is advantageous in order to minimize the impact of geopolitical noise on prices.
Meanwhile, some market observers argue that Bitcoin and altcoins still have substantial upside potential alongside a strong rebound in the Nasdaq. Even amid these positive outlooks, Hayes maintains that he will focus on risk management until clear signals of a genuine policy shift from central banks emerge. Investors are closely watching the timing of potential monetary easing and developments in the Middle East conflict as they formulate their investment strategies.
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