 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC) |
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, analyzed that escalating military tensions in the Middle East will ultimately lead to large-scale liquidity injections by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). However, he maintains a cautious stance, saying he will not immediately buy Bitcoin (BTC).
According to crypto media outlet BeInCrypto on March 6 (local time), Hayes said in a recent essay that if the conflict among the United States, Israel, and Iran becomes prolonged, the U.S. government will have to spend astronomical sums to cover war costs. Hayes explained, “Fiscal pressure will ultimately act as a catalyst forcing the Fed to cut interest rates and print money,” adding, “This will become the fundamental driver pushing Bitcoin’s price higher.” He referenced historical cases such as the 1990 Gulf War and the period following the September 11 attacks in 2001, when the Fed implemented emergency rate cuts and supplied liquidity to the markets, predicting that a similar pattern is likely to repeat this time.
However, Hayes warned against rushing to buy Bitcoin in the early stages of a war. He pointed out that during the initial phase of a conflict, Bitcoin may behave more like a risk asset such as equities rather than a safe-haven asset like digital gold, potentially showing temporary price declines. Indeed, as tensions in the Middle East recently intensified, gold prices surged to record highs while Bitcoin underwent a correction from its recent peak, displaying diverging trends. Hayes stated, “The optimal time to accumulate Bitcoin and high-quality altcoins is when the Fed actually begins cutting rates or printing money to support the government’s objectives,” adding that he is currently maintaining a wait-and-see approach.
Despite the market’s Fear and Greed Index signaling extreme fear, Hayes’ decision to hold off on buying carries significant implications for investors. He maintains a strong bullish outlook, presenting long-term price targets of $250,000 for Bitcoin in 2026 and up to $750,000 in 2027. However, he emphasized that minimizing risk requires confirming tangible changes in the global liquidity environment rather than relying solely on technical chart analysis. In particular, if the Donald Trump administration becomes deeply involved in the Middle East conflict, U.S. debt levels could expand to an unsustainable level, ultimately leading to a decline in the dollar’s value and a relative rise in Bitcoin’s value.
In the digital asset industry, Hayes’ analysis is gaining considerable traction amid Bitcoin’s recent short-term correction after failing to break above $74,000. Although institutional capital continues to flow in through spot ETFs, there is growing recognition that aggressive bets may be risky while macroeconomic uncertainties remain unresolved. Hayes’ strategy focuses on identifying the moment when temporary market shockwaves subside and policy support begins.
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