 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Google/ChatGPT-generated image |
The Bitcoin (BTC) market has reached a final critical threshold that will determine whether it experiences a massive breakout or a sharp decline, as it approaches a decisive seven days shaped by geopolitical tensions and a legislative deadline.
In a video released on his YouTube channel on February 20 (local time), cryptocurrency analyst Lark Davis identified escalating military tensions in the Middle East and the outcome of the U.S. cryptocurrency market structure bill (CLARITY) as key variables that will determine the market’s direction. Davis explained, “The Trump administration’s hardline stance toward Iran and the mobilization of military forces could exert downward pressure on the market,” adding, “The fate of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, now just a week away, could act as a powerful catalyst for a market rebound.”
Bitcoin’s technical indicators are currently sending strong signals of a bottoming phase. A surge in Google searches for ‘Bitcoin to $0’ is being interpreted as a bottom confirmation signal similar to those seen during the Terra collapse and the FTX bankruptcy. Davis noted historical patterns showing that after five consecutive months of decline, Bitcoin has typically followed with rebounds exceeding 100%. He analyzed that once the current price compression phase ends, a move toward the $74,000–$75,000 range is possible. However, if the $65,500 level fails to hold, further downside may be inevitable.
In the altcoin market, a record bullish signal—captured for the first time since 2020—has emerged. A genuine golden cross has appeared in the market capitalization dominance indicator excluding Bitcoin, signaling the potential start of a major altcoin season. Davis assessed that the market may be entering the early stages of renewed risk appetite following a prolonged downtrend, emphasizing that investors should pay attention not only to Bitcoin but also to rotation plays among altcoins.
Among individual assets, the resilience of Solana (SOL) and Ethereum (ETH) is drawing attention. Solana is currently building a solid base near the $80 level, forming an accumulation zone reminiscent of patterns seen before previous price surges. Ethereum, meanwhile, is consolidating within a large symmetrical triangle pattern, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) signaling a rebound and preparing for a potential upside breakout. Analysis suggests that while market fear has reached extremes, whales are focusing on asset accumulation.
The virtual asset market continues a tug-of-war between geopolitical uncertainty as a risk factor and regulatory clarity as a positive catalyst. Davis concluded that geopolitical developments over the coming week and the pace of U.S. congressional legislation will be decisive factors in determining whether Bitcoin can reclaim the $70,000 level. Considering the potential scale of institutional inflows through spot Bitcoin ETFs, once the downtrend halts and support is confirmed, market control is expected to shift back to buyers.
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