 ▲ Ethereum (ETH) / ChatGPT-generated image © |
Amid war fears stemming from the Middle East that have shaken the cryptocurrency market, leading coins Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP (Ripple) are staging a simultaneous rebound. However, the departure of whales and the collapse of the derivatives market are pouring cold water on the short-term rally.
According to TradingNews on March 1 (local time), Ethereum plunged to $1,841 over the weekend due to the fallout from armed clashes between Israel and Iran. It later rebounded more than 6.5%, barely reclaiming the $2,000 level during intraday trading. As of the time of reporting, it is trading around $1,900. During this sharp downturn, approximately $515 million in forced liquidations occurred across the broader crypto market. Despite extreme fear sentiment, major altcoins such as XRP staged a relief rally fueled by a temporary short squeeze.
However, behind the flashy rebound lies serious structural weakness. Over the past 90 days, massive whale wallets holding between 100,000 and 1 million Ethereum have been aggressively offloading holdings in over-the-counter markets. Binance’s open interest has evaporated by 67%, plunging from $12.6 billion to $4.1 billion. Overall market open interest has also dropped by 25%, while key technical indicators—including the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Average Directional Index (ADX), and Relative Strength Index (RSI)—point to strong selling dominance and downward pressure.
In contrast, institutional investors are moving in the opposite direction of retail traders and whales. On February 25, $157 million flowed into spot Ethereum ETFs, snapping a five-week streak of outflows. Additionally, despite prices plunging 60% year-to-date from their annual highs in 2026, the amount of Ethereum locked in network validation staking reached a record 37.1 million coins, underscoring the firm confidence of long-term investors.
Furthermore, Ethereum’s network fundamentals are more robust than ever. Global financial giants such as BlackRock and JPMorgan are building real-world asset (RWA) ecosystems on Ethereum, which currently commands 68% of the total RWA tokenization market share. The upcoming Glamsterdam hard fork in June is expected to bring scalability improvements and introduce a zero-knowledge Ethereum Virtual Machine, likely intensifying institutional interest.
Experts predict that in the short term, Ethereum will move sideways within a downward channel between $1,800 and $2,200, leaving open the possibility of falling to $1,600 or even $1,400 depending on developments in the traditional stock market. However, from a longer-term perspective of six months or more, they forecast a major trend reversal driven by ample institutional capital and Ethereum’s unrivaled network dominance, potentially breaking through the $2,400 resistance level.
*Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only and we are not responsible for any investment losses incurred based on it. The content should be interpreted solely for informational purposes.*