 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC), war, geopolitical crisis/ChatGPT-generated image © |
Geopolitical shocks in the Middle East and turmoil in energy prices are weighing on global risk asset markets, but a rosy outlook suggests that if the war between the United States and Iran is resolved, suppressed buying pressure could explode, triggering a massive rally in Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency.
According to crypto media outlet Bitcoinist on March 13 (local time), Bitcoin has effectively remained under a geopolitical discount akin to wartime conditions since the U.S. and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran in late February. However, as President Trump has signaled his desire for an early end to the conflict, on-chain data, market structure, and exchange-traded fund (ETF) fund flows have already turned positive, positioning the market for a sharp price surge.
Bitcoin surpassed $74,000 in early March but retreated as investor sentiment weakened following news of Iran’s retaliation. That level has now become the most important price target the market must reclaim. According to analytics platform Glassnode, price momentum has begun to recover, the relative strength index has rebounded from recent lows, and key indicators—including realized profit and loss ratios, supply in profit, and net unrealized profit—are all showing gradual improvement.
The most significant macroeconomic impact of the war has been the surge in energy prices, with Brent crude soaring to $119.50 per barrel. If the conflict is resolved and oil prices stabilize, a macro environment favorable to risk assets could emerge, and derivatives traders are already positioning for this scenario. Futures open interest has risen 5.1% to $29.4 billion, while cumulative volume delta, which signals strong buying in perpetual futures markets, jumped 201.7% to $172.6 million.
The options market is also shifting away from a defensive stance and betting on a more optimistic outlook. Options open interest increased from $32.8 billion to $34.1 billion, while volatility spreads have narrowed and the 25-delta skew has begun to decline, indicating a clear revival in investor risk appetite.
Demand for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, a major channel for institutional capital, is also expected to serve as a key driver of the next Bitcoin rally. Glassnode data shows that weekly net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs rose from $776 million to $934 million, while trading volume surged from $16 billion to $23.1 billion. Data platform SoSoValue also reported that spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for three consecutive trading days, strongly suggesting that once macro headwinds ease, explosive capital inflows could drive prices higher.
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