 ▲ U.S. Dollar (USD), Bitcoin (BTC) / AI-generated image © |
As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensify, pushing international oil prices above $100 per barrel and sending the New York stock market plunging to yearly lows, macroeconomic fear has reached its peak. Yet market leader Bitcoin (BTC) is firmly defending the $70,000 level, showing a clear decoupling trend from traditional financial markets.
As of 6:16 a.m. KST on the 13th, data from CoinMarketCap shows that Bitcoin was down 0.22% over the past 24 hours at $70,414, maintaining the psychologically significant and major support level of $70,000. Meanwhile, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization declined 0.4% from the previous day to $2.4 trillion, and the Fear & Greed Index, reflecting investor sentiment, stood at 28 in the “Fear” zone. Except for Ethereum (ETH), which held steady at $2,086, major altcoins including Solana (SOL), XRP (Ripple), and Dogecoin (DOGE) fell across the board amid risk-off sentiment, dragging down the overall market cap.
In contrast to the weakness among altcoins, Bitcoin’s strong resilience stands out even more against the backdrop of a sharp overnight sell-off on Wall Street. On the 12th (local time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 1.56% to mark its lowest level of the year, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.52% and 1.78%, respectively. Despite the decision by major countries to release strategic petroleum reserves on an unprecedented scale, Brent crude for May delivery surged 9.2% to $100.46 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) soared 9.7%, throwing markets into panic.
The primary drivers of the turmoil in macro markets are Iran’s formal declaration of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and rising concerns over private credit defaults. Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has invoked the blockade card to pressure the West, and armed groups continue attacking vessels, while U.S. naval escorts are not expected to be available until later this month. Adding to the strain, major Wall Street institutions such as Morgan Stanley have restricted redemptions from private credit funds amid a surge in withdrawal requests, heightening fears of a broader liquidity crisis across the financial system.
Amid this wave of negative developments, Bitcoin’s ability to hold above $70,000 suggests that investors may be viewing it not merely as a risk asset but as a potential hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty. As surging oil prices rapidly diminish expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts in the second half of the year, capital is exiting traditional equity markets and private funds. Within the digital asset market, speculative funds previously concentrated in altcoins, along with institutional capital, appear to be flowing into relatively safer and more liquid Bitcoin, forming a strong price support base.
The short-term direction of the crypto market now hinges largely on oil price movements and whether the Strait of Hormuz reopens. As Wall Street strategists note, oil prices have become the dominant force driving markets. If tensions in the Middle East persist, altcoins could face further downward pressure. Although Bitcoin is firmly defending the $70,000 support level, prolonged macroeconomic stress and potential fallout from private credit defaults could still trigger liquidity tightening, underscoring the need for conservative and cautious portfolio management.
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