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The virtual asset market stands at a critical crossroads, where its direction over the next two weeks could determine whether the long-term bull market endures or a full-scale downturn begins, amid geopolitical crises and shocks from macroeconomic indicators.
According to cryptocurrency media outlet CoinGape on March 10 (local time), major virtual assets, including Bitcoin (BTC), are currently exposed to extreme volatility as military tensions between the United States and Iran become prolonged. As international oil prices have surged 45% in a month, stoking inflation concerns, investment sentiment toward risk assets has sharply contracted, placing the entire crypto market in a survival test.
The most urgent task is defending key psychological support levels. Bitcoin is currently locked in a precarious battle around the $69,000 mark, and if the $65,000 support level collapses, there is a risk of further decline below $60,000. Ethereum (ETH) is also being closely watched to see whether it can maintain the symbolic $2,000 level, a key indicator for the survival of the altcoin market. Technical analysts warn that failure to secure these support levels within the week could prolong the downtrend.
However, some analysts suggest that the shock from the recently released U.S. February employment report could paradoxically provide an opportunity for a market rebound. Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000, significantly missing expectations, fueling anticipation that the Federal Reserve may pivot toward interest rate cuts. As recession fears grow, expectations that the Fed will be forced to moderate its tightening pace are seen as the only potential escape route capable of triggering a short-term relief rally in the embattled crypto market.
The movements of institutional investors are also sharply divided. While the Coinbase premium has hit record negative levels, signaling selling pressure from U.S. institutions, retail investors are seeking buying opportunities amid the downturn. This supply-demand imbalance is further increasing market instability, and concerns are deepening that even a technical rebound may be difficult if large-scale sell-offs by whale investors continue.
Ultimately, the fate of the crypto market hinges on whether geopolitical risks ease and whether the Federal Reserve signals monetary easing over the coming two weeks. If war-related uncertainties subside and a dovish policy stance is confirmed, a strong V-shaped rebound may be possible. Conversely, if the opposite scenario unfolds, structural collapse across the market could accelerate. Investors are closely monitoring changes in key data amid historically elevated market fear levels, bracing for extreme scenarios.
Disclaimer: This article is for investment reference only, and we are not responsible for any investment losses resulting from it. The content should be interpreted for informational purposes only.