 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC), Gold, Silver, and the U.S. Dollar (USD) / ChatGPT-generated image © |
As international oil prices surge amid escalating geopolitical tensions, reviving fears of global inflation, Bitcoin (BTC), backed by steady inflows from institutional investors, is withstanding downward pressure and engaging in a fierce search for direction.
According to investment media outlet FXStreet on March 9 (local time), Bitcoin is undergoing consolidation near the lower boundary of its range around $67,000 after failing to break through a key resistance level. As the conflict between the United States and Iran enters its tenth day and concerns grow over a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude soared to $113.28 during Asian trading hours, marking its highest level since mid-June 2022. Prolonged oil price increases stimulate global inflation and prompt tighter monetary policy from central banks, acting as a negative factor that significantly reduces liquidity for risk assets such as Bitcoin.
However, despite these macroeconomic headwinds, institutional demand for Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience. According to crypto data analytics platform SoSoValue, U.S. spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net inflows of $568.45 million last week, following $787.31 million the previous week, marking two consecutive weeks of positive flows. If discussions among G7 nations through the International Energy Agency (IEA) regarding strategic petroleum reserve releases temporarily ease the surge in oil prices, these institutional inflows could provide a foundation for a meaningful price recovery.
Market analysis firm QCP Capital noted that amid soaring inflation fears, even U.S. Treasuries and gold are failing to fully serve their traditional roles as safe-haven assets. In contrast, Bitcoin has demonstrated unusual defensive strength under extreme market stress. In particular, its practical value as a digital refuge to avoid political uncertainty and currency volatility is gaining renewed attention, especially in Middle Eastern Gulf countries.
Currently trading around $68,000, Bitcoin’s mid- to long-term technical indicators remain unstable. On the weekly chart, the price remains trapped below the 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at $90,000 and the 100-week EMA at $84,000, while the relative strength index (RSI) has entered oversold territory at 29. The moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator also remains below the signal line, suggesting that downside momentum is merely slowing rather than signaling a complete trend reversal.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin continues to maintain a bearish trend within a descending parallel channel with an upper boundary at $71,980. For a meaningful rebound, it must decisively break through the $71,980 resistance level and advance into the $73,000 range. Conversely, if the lower support level at $65,120 collapses, the price could fall toward the psychological support at $60,000. Considering Fibonacci retracement levels, the possibility of a deeper decline remains open, necessitating thorough risk management.
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