 ▲ Oil tanker passing through the Gulf © |
As geopolitical tensions in the Middle East reached their peak and international oil prices surged past $111 per barrel in an unprecedented oil shock, expectations for a benchmark rate cut were shattered, sending leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) plunging below $66,000.
According to crypto media outlet BeInCrypto on March 9 (local time), on the ninth day since the outbreak of war, Iran named 56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as his successor. With the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) pledging full allegiance and signaling a hardline stance, the Iranian military warned that it could sustain high-intensity conflict for at least six months and would soon deploy long-range missiles. As this power succession intertwines with ongoing U.S. military escalation, the cryptocurrency market has lost any clear catalyst for a rebound and continues to drift.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude surged 22% intraday, soaring to $111.24 per barrel, while Brent crude neared $110, reaching its highest level since 2022. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively blockaded, major oil-producing nations including the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait are cutting production. In addition, Israel struck major fuel storage facilities in Tehran and warned of further attacks on refineries and power plants, while Iran carried out drone strikes on desalination plants in Bahrain and launched ballistic missiles near Kuwait International Airport, resulting in escalating military clashes on multiple fronts.
The U.S. State Department ordered the evacuation of its personnel in Saudi Arabia, underscoring the gravity of the situation. President Donald Trump stated that he is considering deploying special forces and launching extensive strikes to seize Iran’s uranium stockpiles. He dismissed the current surge in oil prices on social media as a temporary and acceptable cost, adding that prices would fall significantly once Iran’s nuclear threat is eliminated, but his remarks failed to calm market fears of a prolonged conflict.
As oil prices climbed above $100, the Federal Reserve’s rate cut scenario—once the biggest macroeconomic tailwind for the cryptocurrency market—completely collapsed. With a March rate cut already off the table and the likelihood of a June cut fading, the dollar has surged and real yields remain elevated. This has created the worst possible combination for Bitcoin, causing it to trade as a simple risk asset rather than a store of value and blocking any sustained recovery.
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