 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC) Decline / AI-Generated Image |
Bitcoin (BTC) has entered what analysts describe as a potential bull trap phase aimed at a short-term rebound, prompting growing warnings that investors should prepare for a deepening long-term bear market.
According to Cointelegraph on March 8 (local time), on-chain analyst Willy Woo recently stated that Bitcoin is currently in the middle of a bear market and could soon experience a bull trap that misleads investors. Woo explained that while Bitcoin may attempt a short-term rally through late April, this is likely to be a temporary move within a broader downtrend rather than a sustainable recovery. Considering the current supply-demand structure, he expects strong resistance in the mid-$70,000 range, increasing the likelihood of another downturn.
The progression of Bitcoin’s bear market is divided into three stages, and the market is now at a critical inflection point between stages one and two. Woo identified the liquidity collapse in the third quarter of 2025 as the beginning of stage one and forecast that stage two—marked by a synchronized global stock market decline—will soon unfold in earnest. Due to its relatively smaller market size, Bitcoin tends to react ahead of global macroeconomic trends, and the current price stagnation is being compared to the calm before a major storm.
Liquidity indicators and volatility analysis suggest that Bitcoin has not yet reached its true bottom, making further price declines appear inevitable. Woo projected a typical bottom for this bear market around $45,000, but warned that if the macroeconomic environment were to structurally deteriorate, prices could retreat to $30,000 or even revisit the long-term support level of $16,000. Notably, drying liquidity in both spot and futures markets is cited as a decisive obstacle preventing sustained price appreciation.
On-chain data also indicates clear signs of whale investors exiting the market, fueling further anxiety. Crypto analytics firm Santiment reported that large whales are aggressively offloading holdings, while retail investors are engaging in dip-buying below $70,000—highlighting a sharp imbalance. Woo added, “I have never seen Bitcoin sustain an upward trend when both spot and futures liquidity are weak,” urging caution against the current rebound attempt.
A meaningful recovery for Bitcoin is unlikely to materialize until the second half of 2026. Woo anticipates that the bear market trend will only conclude around the fourth quarter of 2026, with genuine bullish momentum potentially returning in the first or second quarter of 2027. He advised investors to remain focused on liquidity recovery rather than reacting emotionally to market noise and short-term rallies, maintaining a conservative stance in the near term.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The publisher is not responsible for any investment losses incurred based on this content.