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Ethereum is once again being tested at its core seven-year uptrend line, making this week’s closing price a critical inflection point that could determine its mid- to long-term trajectory.
According to investment outlet TradingNews on March 7 (local time), Ethereum (ETH) was trading at around $1,987, down 3.92% over the past 24 hours. The current price level sits near an ascending trendline that has supported all major bottoms since 2019. This trendline notably acted as support during the sharp crash in March 2020 and the collapse phase in 2022, each time leading to meaningful multi-month rebounds.
However, analysts say this test is far more challenging than before. Ethereum has underperformed Bitcoin (BTC) throughout the current cycle and remains in a weaker position in terms of relative strength and institutional narrative compared to previous bottom zones. If Bitcoin’s strength continues, capital could once again rotate into BTC, raising the possibility that Ethereum, should it fail to hold the trendline, may end up serving as a liquidity source for Bitcoin.
Technically, there are few clear signs of a short-term rebound. The 20-day simple moving average stands at $1,979.79, nearly aligned with the current price, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 44.74, remaining below the neutral level. The MACD histogram has flattened to near zero, and Bollinger Bands show support at $1,853.61 and resistance at $2,105.97. TradingNews noted that a breakout above $2,147 could open the door to $2,335 and then $2,542. Conversely, if the $1,890–$1,937 range breaks down, ETH could retreat to $1,850, the psychological support level of $1,800, or even $1,750.
In contrast to price action, ecosystem indicators remain relatively solid. The Ethereum Layer 2 ecosystem now includes 146 active networks, with total value locked (TVL) reaching $38.2 billion. Tokenized real-world assets (RWA) have grown to $20.4 billion, while combined stablecoin liquidity across the mainnet and Layer 2 networks totals approximately $179 billion, accounting for more than 60% of the overall market share. A decline in ETH holdings on exchanges has also been cited as a sign of growing long-term holding behavior.
Ultimately, the key variables are the macro environment and the weekly close. With oil prices at $90, a reduction of 92,000 U.S. jobs in February, and constraints on Federal Reserve rate cuts overlapping, risk assets are broadly under pressure. TradingNews advised that rather than making immediate buy or sell decisions at current levels, investors should first confirm whether Ethereum can defend its ascending trendline on a weekly basis. If the trendline holds and ETH secures a daily close above $2,150, a rebound scenario could regain traction. However, a drop below $1,850 may tilt the outlook toward further downside.
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