 ▲ Gold, Bitcoin (BTC) © |
A macroeconomic expert has made a bold prediction that Bitcoin (BTC) will outperform gold in returns over the next few years, drawing significant market attention. The stark psychological gap between a cryptocurrency market gripped by extreme fear and a gold market driven by greed is, in fact, creating an opportunity for a major reversal, according to the analysis.
According to cryptocurrency outlet Bitcoinist on March 7 (local time), macroeconomist Lyn Alden recently stated on the New Era Finance podcast that if she had to choose between gold and Bitcoin for the next two to three years, she would pick Bitcoin. She explained that there is a pendulum-like flow between the two assets, and with the pendulum currently tilted heavily toward gold, a strong price reversal could occur in the near future.
The price movements and investor sentiment surrounding the two assets are indeed sharply diverging. In January, gold reached a record high of about $5,608 per ounce, with market sentiment remaining somewhat euphoric and the Fear & Greed Index firmly in greed territory at 72. In contrast, Bitcoin has plunged about 44% from its all-time high of $126,000 recorded last October. Its investor sentiment index has fallen to 18, signaling extreme fear and what some describe as excessively negative evaluations.
Alden’s view reflects Wall Street’s intense debate over what constitutes a true safe-haven asset. On the opposing side, billionaire investor Ray Dalio firmly backs gold, the world’s second-largest reserve asset held by central banks and what he considers the most established form of money. Dalio also pointed to Bitcoin’s privacy limitations and warned that advances in quantum computing—expected within years as large-scale quantum facilities begin construction—could pose a fatal threat to digital assets.
The two experts’ positions are not entirely irreconcilable. Both acknowledge that the two assets can rise or fall simultaneously and neither completely dismisses the value of the other. Ultimately, the core of this debate is not about long-term survival but rather a strategic choice over which asset will deliver better investment performance within the limited time frame leading up to 2029.
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