 ▲ Bitcoin (BTC), decline / ChatGPT-generated image |
An urgent warning that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the outbreak of war in Iran and a surge in international oil prices could drag Bitcoin (BTC) down to the $50,000 level has pushed the crypto market’s fear index to extreme levels.
Crypto analyst Lark Davis stated in a video uploaded to his YouTube channel on March 6 (local time) that maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for 20% of the world’s energy supply transit, has effectively come to a complete halt. Davis pointed out that oil tankers are refusing passage due to the risk of drone attacks, resulting in an unprecedented situation where vessels are anchored on both sides of the strait. Qatar’s energy minister also warned that if tanker traffic does not resume, international oil prices could surge explosively to $150 per barrel within two to three weeks, signaling severe disruption to global supply chains.
The spike in energy prices is impacting the broader production of petrochemical products, including fertilizers, raising concerns of the worst economic crisis since the 1970s. On Wall Street, former Goldman Sachs chairman Lloyd Blankfein has warned of a potential market collapse, heightening tensions to record levels. The S&P 500 is currently showing heavy momentum, and analysts widely believe that if geopolitical risks remain unresolved, the index could undergo a full-scale correction of around 10%, pushing it back to the low 6,000 range.
Bitcoin stands at a technical crossroads, and failure to quickly reclaim the $72,000–$74,000 range could open the door to further declines toward $50,000. Davis emphasized that holding the 20-day exponential moving average on the daily chart, currently around $69,000, is crucial for maintaining the short-term trend. However, based on on-chain data using the Metcalfe valuation model, Bitcoin has entered a deeply undervalued zone comparable to past bear market bottoms, with Wall Street institutions using the opportunity to accumulate rather than retail investors.
Enterprise software firm MicroStrategy has recently been acquiring an average of 858 BTC per day, overwhelmingly absorbing the supply produced by miners. If Bitcoin reaches $200,000, its stock price could climb to around $800. Mining company Marathon Digital is also considered undervalued relative to its Bitcoin holdings and is seeking a market re-rating as it pivots toward artificial intelligence data center operations.
Financial markets are expected to remain extremely volatile in response to news headlines until geopolitical solutions, such as President Donald Trump’s announcement of naval escort support, materialize. Big tech companies including Tesla and Meta are also under downward pressure within technical consolidation ranges, suggesting that overall investment sentiment across asset markets may remain subdued for the time being. Bitcoin investors are closely monitoring how the energy crisis and geopolitical variables may constrain market liquidity, focusing on rigorous risk management.
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